[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jan 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the
Gulf of Mexico tonight into Sat. Strong to gale-force southerly
winds and scattered to numerous thunderstorms will precede the
cold front across the northern Gulf, moving from west to east
today through tonight, with strong winds across the rest of the
central and eastern Gulf. Some of these thunderstorms could be
strong to severe, with gusty winds. Seas will build to 11 ft in
the northern Gulf tonight. Gale-force winds will end early Sat
morning and conditions will quickly improve through Sat.

Atlantic Gale Warning: Southerly winds offshore Florida will
increase to strong late tonight in advance of a cold front that
will move across the waters off NE Florida by late Sat. Gale
force winds will develop on Sat morning off northern Florida,
north of 29N between 77W and 80W. This front is forecast to reach
from near 31N74W to South Florida early Sun and from near 31N56W
to the central Bahamas early Mon. Seas are forecast to build to
around 12 ft on Sat within the area of strongest winds.

Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell, that will be generated
by the next storm system, will move into the waters that are to
the N of 29N between 51W and 65W this afternoon. This large swell
will spread to the south and east through the weekend. By Sun
morning, the area of 12 ft seas or greater will be located north
of 26N between 35W and 51W. The sea heights will peak at 14 to 16
ft north of 29N between 37W and 55W from Sat afternoon through
Sun night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details on the three Special Features discussed above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 10N14W and continues to 09N18W. The ITCZ
extends from 09W18W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen along the ITCZ from 03N to 09N, west of 20W. Similar
activity is also noted from 06N to 11N and W of 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the Gale Warning in the northern Gulf.

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida to the
south-central Gulf near 25N88W, where it becomes a warm front to
1006 mb low pressure near 29N94W. A cold front extends from the
low to 21N98W. In association with this frontal system, moderate
to strong convection is observed north of 26N between 85W and 91W,
east of the cold front. Over the same area in the NW Gulf, seas
are 6 to 10 ft with fresh to strong SE winds ahead of the cold
front veering W to NW behind the front. Over the central Gulf
north of 22N between 91W to 87W, fresh SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas prevail, while moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are
observed over the southwestern and eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northeastward as
a warm front tonight into Sat as the low drags the cold front
across basin. The cold front will extend from Panama City, FL to
the central Bay of Campeche near 22N93W early Sat, then weaken Sat
night as it reaches from Tampa Bay, FL to 22N93W. Strong to near
gale force southerly winds, and scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will precede the cold front across the northern half
of the Gulf of Mexico, moving from west to east today through
tonight, with gale force winds possible tonight in the north-
central to northeastern Gulf. Some of these thunderstorms could be
strong to severe, with gusty winds. Winds and seas will subside
Sat night. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected Mon
night, preceded and followed by strong to gale force winds and
building seas Mon through Tue night. Conditions quiet down Wed and
Wed night as high pressure in the wake of the front shifts E
across the central Gulf. This will allow for moderate return flow
to set up over the far western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong E trades and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail over the
central Caribbean south of 14N to the the coast of Colombia.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere in the
Caribbean with seas of 2 to 4 ft. No significant convection is
observed over the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia through the
forecast period, pulsing to near-gale force at night. Winds near
the coast of Colombia could reach gale force Sun night. Southeast
winds will increase to fresh to strong in the northwestern
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras tonight into early Sat as a cold
front remains north of the area. Looking ahead, southerly winds in
the northwestern Caribbean are expected to increase again early
next week as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico.
Winds diminish Wed and Wed night as high pressure shifts E across
the central Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
the Gale Warning off NE Florida and Significant Swell in the
Atlantic.

A cold front stretches from near 31N55W to 25N71W, transitioning
to a stationary front from there to the Straits of Florida. No
significant convection is noted with this boundary. Strong to near
gale-force winds are on both sides of the front, along with seas
of 8 to 13 ft, mainly north of 27N between 35W and 73W. Farther
east, another cold front extends from 31N29W to 26N38W, then
continues as a stationary front to 23N58W. Moderate winds are
noted on either side of this front north of 29N, between 24W and
30W. Large NW swell of 8 to 10 ft covers the area north of 28N
between 30W and 35W. For the remainder of the basin, moderate to
fresh NE to E trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas prevail from 20N
southward.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will extend from near
25N55W to 22N65W and stationary to South Florida this evening,
then gradually dissipate Sat from 23N55W to 23N65W. Fresh to
strong winds and rough seas on both sides of the front will
continue to impact the waters N of 27N and E of about 70W tonight,
with the strong winds confined to east of 58W. Southerly winds
offshore Florida will increase to strong late tonight and to gale
force on Sat off northern Florida in advance of a stronger cold
front that is expected to move across the waters off northeast
Florida by late Sat. This front is forecast to reach from near
31N74W to South Florida early Sun, from near 31N57W to the central
Bahamas early Mon and from near 23N55W to 23N70W early Tue. On
Sat night through Mon, after the gales end, fresh to strong winds
are expected on either side of this front N of 29N as it moves
eastward. Looking ahead to Tue and Tue night, gale force southerly
winds are expected to precede yet another strong cold front over
the waters east of NE Florida, while strong to near gale force
southerly winds are likely elsewhere N of 27N and W of 65W. By
late Wed, this next front will be weakening as it extends from
near 31N69W to the central Bahamas and to west-central Cuba. Fresh
to strong southerly winds are expected at that time N of 28N
between the front and 60W, and along with rough seas E and NE of
the Bahamas.

$$
AReinhart
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