[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051634
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jan 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the
Gulf of Mexico today into Sat. Strong to near gale-force southerly
winds and scattered to numerous thunderstorms will precede the
cold front across the northern half of the Gulf, moving from west
to east today through tonight, with gale-force winds possible
tonight in the north-central to northeastern Gulf. Some of these
thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with gusty winds. Seas
will build to 11 ft in the northern Gulf tonight. Conditions will
quickly improve Sat.

Atlantic Gale Warning: Southerly winds offshore Florida will
increase to strong late tonight, and to gale force on Sat off
northern Florida, north of 29N between 76W and 80W, in advance of
a cold front that will move across the waters off NE Florida by
late Sat. This front is forecast to reach from near 31N74W to
South Florida early Sun and from near 31N57W to the central
Bahamas early Mon. Seas are forecast to build to 13 ft on Sat
within the area of strongest winds.

Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell, that will be generated
by the next storm system, will move into the waters that are to
the N of 29N between 51W and 65W this afternoon. This large swell
will spread to the south and east through the weekend. By Sun
morning, the area of 12 ft seas or greater will be located north
of 27N between 35W and 52W. The sea heights will peak at 15 to 17
ft north of 29N between 37W and 55W from Sat afternoon through
midday Sun.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details on the three Special Features discussed above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 09N16W. The ITCZ extends from
09W16W to 00N49W. Isolated moderate convection is seen along the
ITCZ from 03N to 07N, east of 42W. Similar activity is also noted
from 05N southward west of 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the Gale Warning in the northern Gulf.

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida to the
south-central Gulf near 24N87W and northwestward to 25N91W, where
it becomes a warm front to 1005 mb low pressure near 29N96W. A
cold front extends from the low to 25N98W. In association with
this frontal system, moderate to strong convection is observed
north of 26N, east of the cold front to 91W. Over the same area in
the NW Gulf, seas are 6 to 9 ft with fresh to strong SE winds
ahead of the cold front veering W to NW behind the front. Over the
central Gulf north of 22N between 91W to 87W, fresh SE to S winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail, while moderate E to SE winds and 4 to
6 ft seas are observed over the southwestern and eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northeastward as
a warm front today as the low drags the cold front across basin.
The cold front will extend from Panama City, FL to the central Bay
of Campeche near 22N93W early Sat, then weaken Sat night as it
reaches from Tampa Bay, FL to 22N93W. Strong to near gale force
southerly winds, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
precede the cold front across the northern half of the Gulf of
Mexico, moving from west to east today through tonight, with gale-
force winds possible tonight in the north-central to northeastern
Gulf. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with
gusty winds. Winds and seas will subside Sat night. Looking
ahead, the next cold front is expected Mon night, preceded and
followed by strong to gale force winds and building seas Mon
through Tue night. .

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh E trades and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail over the
central Caribbean south of 16N between 80W and 70W, except for
fresh to strong with 6 to 8 ft seas near the coast of Colombia.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, with seas of 2 to 4 ft.
No significant convection is observed over the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia through the
forecast period, pulsing to near-gale force at night. Winds near
the coast of Colombia could reach gale force Sun night. Southeast
winds will increase to fresh to strong in the northwestern
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras tonight into early Sat as a cold
front remains north of the area. Looking ahead, southerly winds in
the NW Caribbean could increase again early next week as a strong
cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
the Gale Warning off NE Florida and Significant Swell in the
Atlantic.

A cold front stretches from near 31N59W to 25N70W, transitioning
to a stationary front from there to the Straits of Florida. No
significant convection is noted with this boundary. Strong to near
gale-force winds are observed in a recent scatterometer pass on
both sides of the front, along with seas of 8 to 12 ft, mainly
north of 28N between 55W and 74W. Farther east, another cold front
extends from 31N31W to 25N43W, then continues as a stationary
front to 23N60W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted on either side
of this front north of 28N, between 27W and 35W. Large NW swell of
8 to 13 ft covers the area north of 23N between 35W and 57W. For
the remainder of the basin, moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds
and 6 to 8 ft seas prevail from 20N southward.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front near 31N59W to 25N70W will
extend from near 26N55W to 23N67W and stationary to South Florida
this evening, then gradually dissipate Sat from 23N55W to 23N65W.
Strong winds and rough seas will impact waters north of 27N and
east of 70W, on both sides of the front through this evening.
Southerly winds offshore Florida will increase to strong late
tonight and to gale force on Sat off northern Florida in advance
of a stronger cold front that is expected to move across the
waters off northeast Florida by late Sat. This front is forecast
to reach from near 31N74W to South Florida early Sun, from near
31N57W to the central Bahamas early Mon and from near 23N55W to
23N70W early Tue. On Sat night through Mon, after the gales end,
fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of this front
north of 29N as it moves eastward. Looking ahead to Tue and Tue
night, gale force southerly winds are expected to precede yet
another strong cold front over the waters east of NE Florida,
while strong to near gale force southerly winds are likely
elsewhere north of 27N and west of 65W.

$$
Nepaul
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