[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jan 04 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Large Swell in the Atlantic Ocean...

A cold front passes through 31N42W 26N50W 23N60W, to
22N72W near the SE Bahamas. A 1019 mb high pressure center
is near 27N66W. The latest altimeter setting data show
that the sea heights are 12 feet or higher in the
Atlantic Ocean from 28N northward between 50W and 63W.
The earlier gale-force winds now are to the north of the
area. Large NW swell is being generated from the storm
system that caused the earlier gale-force winds. The
comparatively highest sea heights of 17 feet are from
30N to 31N between 50W and 52W. Rough seas also are
elsewhere to the north of 31N45W 27N51W 24N63W.
This area of large swell will propagate eastward through
Friday, while subsiding slowly subsiding. The sea heights
are forecast to be less than 12 feet on Friday afternoon.
More large NW swell, that will be generated by the next
storm system, will move into the waters that are to the
N of 29N between 56W and 65W on Friday afternoon. This
large swell will spread to the south and to the east
through the weekend. The sea heights that will be with
this swell will peak near 18 feet on Saturday night,
roughly from 30N northward between 40W and 50W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes
through 06N10W, to 06N20W 04N30W 02N37W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N
southward from 27W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A NE-to-SW oriented cold front passes through 28N on the
Florida east coast, to the south central Gulf waters, and
to 22N91W. The front becomes stationary from 22N91W, to
the coastal plains of Mexico near 19N96W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated
moderate to locally strong cover the area.

Fresh northerly winds are from the front northward from
92W eastward. Mostly moderate or slower winds are
elsewhere. Moderate seas cover the NE quadrant, the
central one-third from north to south, and the SW corner
except for slight seas off the NW Yucatan Peninsula.
Slight seas are in the remainder of the area.

A cold front extending from Fort Myers, Florida to 23N90W
and to the SW Gulf will shift southeast of the Gulf this
evening. Low pressure, with an associated cold front is
forecast to move across the basin Fri into Sat, bringing
strong winds and the potential for thunderstorms across
the NE Gulf. Looking ahead, the next front is expected
starting next week, preceded and followed by strong to
near gale force winds and building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh E to SE winds are within 240 nm of the coast of
Venezuela between 63W and 70W. Broad moderate or slower
surface wind spans the rest of the area. Moderate seas
are within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia and the
eastern half of Panama, and the central coastal sections
of Venezuela. Slight seas are elsewhere.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle
level clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere
throughout the area.

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered
N of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia through
the forecast period. South winds will increase to fresh
to strong in the northwestern Caribbean Fri night into
early Sat as a cold front passes north of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the large swell that is in the Atlantic Ocean.
Moderate to rough seas are from 11N to 14N between 35W
and 40W. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic
Ocean. Strong westerly winds are from 29N northward between
the 31N42W 22N72W cold front and 54W. Fresh westerly winds
are elsewhere from 27N northward between the cold front
and 55W. Mostly fresh to some strong southerly winds are
from 27N northward between 35W and the cold front. Fresh
NE winds are from the line 24N21W 19N37W 17N51W 16N60W
southward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean. A 1021 mb high pressure center is
near 26N34W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 13N
northward from 43W eastward.

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N76W
beyond 28N at the eastern coast of Florida. Strong NW winds
are from the cold front northward. Strong SW winds are from
27N northward from 70W westward, to the south of the
cold front. Moderate seas are from the Bahamas northward
from 70W westward.

Very rough seas N of 28N and E of 60W will shift east of
the area today. A cold front will move off the Florida
coast today. This front will extend from just west of
Bermuda to the NE Bahamas tonight, then move across the
southeastern waters for the end of the week. Strong winds
and rough seas will impact the northern waters on both
sides of this front. A third and stronger cold front is
expected to move into the waters off NE Florida Sat.
Gale force southerly winds are possible off
NE Florida ahead of the front on Sat.

$$
MT/JA
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