[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040901
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jan 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large swell in Atlantic:
The area of gale force winds in the central Atlantic have shifted
N of the area. Large NW swell generated from the storm system that
generated the gale force winds continues across the waters. Seas
greater than 12 ft cover the waters N of 28N between 50W and 63W,
with seas peaking near 17 ft. This area of large swell will
propagate eastward through Fri while slowly subsiding, with seas
decreasing below 12 ft Fri afternoon. Another large set of NW
swell generated by the next storm system will move into the waters
N of 29N between 56W and 65W Fri afternoon. This large swell will
spread south and east through the weekend. Seas with this swell
will peak near 18 ft Sat night roughly N of 30N between 40W and
50W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N16W to 03N27W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 18W and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center over the
NE Gulf to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are N of
25N and W of the front to 89W, as well as SE of the front to 25N.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6
ft range W of the front and 3-5 ft E of the front.

For the forecast, the area of low pressure will track NE of the
basin today, with associated cold front moving E across the basin.
Another low pressure and cold front is forecast to move across
the basin Fri into Sat, bringing strong winds and the potential
for thunderstorms across the NE Gulf. Looking ahead, the next
front will arrive at the start of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail N of Colombia with moderate to
fresh winds elsewhere E of 80W. Light to gentle winds are noted
elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range off Colombia, with 2-4 ft
seas prevailing elsewhere.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure
centered N of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia through the
forecast period. S winds will increase to fresh to strong in the
NW Caribbean Fri night into early Sat as a cold front passes
north of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on large NW swell
impacting the Atlantic waters.

A cold front extends from 31N46W to 23N57W becomes stationary to N
of Hispaniola. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted N of 28N within 300 nm east of the front. Fresh to strong
winds are on either side of the front covering the waters N of 29N
between 40W and 60W. Aside from the large NW swell mentioned
above, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 25N between
45W and 68W. Fresh to strong winds have developed off the coast of
NE Florida, ahead of the cold front over the Gulf of Mexico which
will move off the coast of Florida today. High pressure prevails
over the remainder of the discussion waters. Outside of the area
of fresh to strong winds, light to gentle winds generally prevail
N of 20N. Moderate to fresh winds are found S of 20N. Aside from
the are of seas greater than 8 ft, seas of 4-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, very rough seas N of 28N and E of 60W
will shift E of the area today. A cold front will move off the
Florida coast today. This front will extend from just west of
Bermuda to the NE Bahamas tonight, then move over the SE waters
for the end of the week. Strong winds and rough seas will impact
the northern waters on both sides of this front. A third and
stronger cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida Sat.
Gale force southerly winds are possible off NE Florida ahead of
the front Sat.

$$
AL
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