[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jan 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front curves southwestward from northwest of Bermuda across
31N67W to the Florida Keys. Scattered showers are occurring ahead
of the front to 52W and N of 25N. Strong to gale force W to NW
winds are behind the front with seas in the 8 to 14 ft range. These
winds and high seas will shift eastward along with the cold front
across the western Atlantic through Wed afternoon. As the front
starts to weaken at the central Atlantic Wed night, both winds and
seas should gradually subside. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas
to 11 ft will also continue to progress eastward with the front.
Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Sierra
Leone coast, then reaches westward to 07N17W. The ITCZ runs from
02N34W across 00N40W to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 01N to 06N between 10W and 21W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Keys to 25N85W where it
stalls and continues NW to the southern tip of Texas. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds are N of the frontal boundary, being the
highest winds off the coast of Texas. Moderate to fresh SE winds
are also ongoing ahead of the front over the far western gulf.
Seas basin-wide are in the 3-4 ft range, except over the Texas
offshore waters where seas are between 4 and 5 ft. Scattered
showers associated with the front are affecting mainly the central
basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will prevail north
of the front. The front will retreat northward over the central
Gulf as a warm front tonight into Wed as a new cold front enters
the NW Gulf. Low pressure is likely to form along this front and
track NE to E across the northern Gulf Wed night. Fresh to strong
winds are likely to be associated with this low and cold front.
Another cold front is likely to cross the basin Fri night into the
weekend, bringing similar fresh to strong winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trades and seas to 3 ft are ongoing over the
eastern half of the basin. A surface ridge over the Gulf of Mexico
extends into the NW Caribbean supporting moderate to fresh NE winds
and seas in the 5-6 ft range over the western half of the basin.
There is no deep convection ongoing basin-wide.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure
centered N of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will lead to fresh to strong winds off Colombia into the weekend.
S winds will increase to fresh to strong in the NW Caribbean Fri
night as a cold front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about a
Gale Warning.


For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will race E and extend
from 28N55W to the Turks and Caicos by Wed morning. By Wed night,
the front will be east of the area. A broad area of strong winds
and very rough seas are expected both ahead of and behind the
front N of 27N and E of 75W, with gales continuing tonight behind
the front N of 29N. These gales will spread E to 55W through the
day Wed. Another cold front will move off the Florida coast Wed
night, extend from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Thu night, then move
over the SE waters for the end of the week. Strong winds and rough
seas will again impact northern waters on both sides of this
front.

$$
Ramos
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