[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Tue Jan 2 11:57:22 CST 2024


AXNT20 KNHC 021757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jan 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front curves southwestward from northwest of Bermuda across
31N72W to near Miami, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 85 nm north of the
front. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are
evident behind the front. As the front pushes farther eastward to
near 31N64W late this afternoon, winds behind the front north of
30N between 66W and 71W will reach near-gale to gale force. Seas
under the strongest winds are going to peak between 12 and 18 ft.
These winds and high seas will shift eastward along with the cold
front across the western Atlantic through Wed afternoon. As the
front starts to weaken at the central Atlantic Wed night, both
winds and seas should gradually subside. Please refer to the High
Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Sierra
Leone coast, then reaches westward to 07N17W. An ITCZ runs from
03N34W across 00N41W to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Widely scattered
moderate convection is seen south the monsoon trough from 02N to
07N between the Liberia coast and 18W, and also near and up to 120
nm north of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends westward from near Naples, Florida to the
central Gulf, then continues as a stationary front to near
Brownsville, Texas. Scattered showers are seen near and up to 70
nm along either side of this boundary. Moderate to locally fresh
NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present north of this
boundary across the northern Gulf. Moderate SE winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas are noted at the southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of
Campeche. Gentle NE to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will stall tonight from the
Florida Keys to just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to
fresh NE winds will prevail north of this front. A stronger cold
front will enter the northwestern Gulf on Wed. A low pressure may
form along this front and track northeastward to eastward across
the northern Gulf Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are likely to
be associated with this low and cold front. Another cold front
could cross the basin Fri night into the weekend, bringing similar
conditions.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few surface troughs embedded within the trade-wind flow are
triggering scattered showers near the Windward Passage and Leeward
Islands, and at the north-central basin. Convergent trades are
generating similar conditions near the coast of Honduras and
Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft
dominate the south-central and northwestern basin, including the
Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure
centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will lead to fresh to strong winds off Colombia through the week.
S winds will become fresh to strong in the northwestern basin Fri
as a cold front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about a
Gale Warning.

Other than the cold front and its associated weather and seas
mentioned in the Special Features section, another cold front
runs southwestward from a 1017 mb low at 29.5N35W to near 27N40W,
then continues as a stationary front to 24N46W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring near the low, while patchy showers are
seen up to 40 nm along either side of this boundary. Two surface
troughs are causing scattered showers over the southeast Bahamas
and near the Virgin Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh S to SW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted east
of the first cold front north of 26N between 60W and 71W, and also
east of the second cold front north of 26N between 34W and 37W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident near
the southeast Bahamas, including waters surrounding the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Otherwise, light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft
seas in moderate northerly swell exist north of 20N between the
northwest Africa coast and 71W/Bahamas, including the Canary
Islands. To the south, gentle to moderate NNE to ENE winds and
seas at 5 to 7 ft are found from the Equator to 20N between 20W
and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft seas in mixed swell prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the first cold front will reach from
Bermuda to southeast Bahamas tonight, stall near 22N/23N by Wed
night then dissipate Thu. Strong winds and building seas are
expected on either side of this front north of 27N through Wed
night. Winds will reach gale force west of the front north of 30N
tonight and Wed. A new cold front is forecast to move off the
Florida coast Wed night into Thu, extend from Bermuda to the
Bahamas Thu night, then stall near 20N/21N during the end of the
week. Strong winds and rough seas will again impact waters north
of 25N on both sides of this front.

$$

Chan
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