[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Feb 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure W of
60W and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will sustain
fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the south-central
Caribbean into early next week. These winds will pulse to gale-
force off the northwestern Colombia coast, during the nighttime
and early morning hours from tonight through early Sat morning.
Seas near and just downwind of these strongest winds are expected
to reach 11 to 14 ft each early morning. Please read the latest
High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for additional
information.

Eastern Atlantic Meteo-France Gale Warning:
A large dome of 1044 mb high pressure is over the northern
Atlantic near 43N40W. A tight pressure gradient between this high
and a broad surface trough across northwestern Africa is causing
fresh to strong northeasterly winds in the Meteo-France Marine
Zone Agadir, near the Morocco coast. These winds are forecast to
peak at near gale to gale-force from early Sat morning through
late Sat afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Warning
issued by Meteo-France at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Sierra
Leone border near 09N13W and extends southwestward across 04.5N19W
to 00.5N29W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest
analysis. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
00N to 06N between 00W and 25W. Widely scattered moderate
convection dots the waters from 00N to 05N between 27W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Big Bend
Region near 29N83W to 26N94W to just S of Tampico, Mexico.
Scattered light showers are occurring along the front W of 88W.
The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by a weak surface ridge
stretching west- southwestward from south Florida to the central
Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft
prevail N of the cold front. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and
4 to 5 ft seas are found at the central and eastern Bay of
Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail
for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front is expected to
move slowly E-SE and stall along about 27N this evening, then
drift N and gradually dissipate through Fri. Fresh to strong NE to
E winds are expected N of the front through this evening. Over
the weekend, high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will
build weakly into the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section about an on-going Gale
Warning.

A strong surface ridge to the north of the Caribbean extends SW to
south Florida and continues to promote a moderate to fresh trade-
wind regime across the entire basin. Outside the Gale Warning
area, fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are
present at the south- central basin. Fresh with locally strong ENE
to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate the north- central basin.
Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are noted at
the Gulf of Honduras and through the Windward Passage. Gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 4 ft seas exist in the
northwestern basin, except the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh
NE to ENE winds with 4 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere within the
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, he ridge N of the basin will begin to shift S
today and strengthen across the western Atlantic tonight into Sun,
causing fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean and
Windward Passage to expand and dominate much of the central and
eastern basin, as well as the Gulf of Honduras. NE to E winds will
pulse to gale-force nightly offshore Colombia through at least
Fri night. Winds and seas will begin to gradually diminish Sun
through Mon as Atlantic high pressure retreats to the NE.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about a
Meteo-France Gale Warning.

A stationary front reaches southwestward from the north Atlantic
across 31N58W to a 1018 mb low near 28N69W, then continues as a
surface trough to 20N60W. The surface low is supported by a deep
layered upper level cyclone that is producing scattered moderate
isolated strong convection between 52W and 58W, from 23N to beyond
31N. Aided by upper-level wind shear, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are evident just north of the Cabo Verde
Islands, along the leading edge of a trade-wind surge. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin. Strong high pressure of 1044 mb is center over the
north central Atlantic and is promoting fresh to strong easterly
winds across the Atlantic N of 18N between W Africa and 50W, where
winds turn SE to SE ahead and into the mid Atlantic low/trough.
Seas are generally 7 to 11 ft across this area E of 50W. Further S
across the tropical Atlantic moderate ENE trades prevail, with
seas of 5 to 8 ft.

Further W, fresh SW winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are found north
of 29N between 73W and the Georgia/northern Florida coast.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas in moderate easterly swell are present north of 23N between
60W and the Georgia-Florida coasts. Moderate to fresh trades and
seas of 6 to 8 ft are found S of 23N to the Greater Antilles, and
extend through the Windward Passage, where seas are 7-8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a central Atlantic trough is nearly
stationary along 59W-60W from 20N to beyond 31N and will drift E
through the weekend. The ridge from Bermuda to south Florida will
begin to shift S today and allow a cold front to sink SE into the
NW waters this morning. The front is expected to stall along 29N
early Fri then drift N into the weekend to the W of 68W, while
moving slowly SE across the waters E of 68W. Strong high pressure
N of the front will induce freshening trade winds south of the
front and strong NE to E winds across the NE waters Fri night
through Sun morning, before diminishing.

$$
Stripling
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net