[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Feb 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:
Tight gradient between a strong ridge of high pressure near 28N
and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will sustain fresh
to strong easterly trade winds across the south-central Caribbean
into early next week. These winds are going to pulse to between
near-gale and gale-force just off the northwestern Colombia coast,
during the nighttime and early morning hours from tonight through
early Sat morning. Seas under the strongest winds are expected to
reach 11 to 14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore
Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for additional
information.

Eastern Atlantic Meteo-France Gale Warning:
A large dome of 1046 mb high pressure is over the northern
Atlantic near 43N40W. Tight gradient between this high and a broad
surface trough across northwestern Africa is causing fresh to
strong northeasterly winds in the Meteo-France Marine Zone Agadir,
near the Morocco coast. These winds are forecast to peak at near-
gale to gale-force from early Sat morning through late Sat
afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Warning issued by
Meteo-France at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea-Sierra Leone
border, then extends southwestward across 04N20W to 02N27W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen near this feature from 01N
to 06N between the Liberia coast and 25W. There is no ITCZ
presence based on the latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Panhandle,
passing just south of New Orleans to near La Pesca, Mexico.
Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 60 nm north of this
boundary. The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by a surface
ridge stretching west-southwestward from central Florida to south
of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 5
to 8 ft are present behind the cold front. Moderate to fresh ENE
to E winds and 4 to 5 ft seas are found at the central and eastern
Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 2
to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from
the Florida Big Bend to just north of Tampico, Mexico on Thu,
then stall and gradually dissipate through Fri. Fresh NE to E
winds are expected north of the front as it weakens. Over the
weekend, high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will
build westward across the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section about an on-going Gale
Warning.

A strong surface ridge to the north near 28N continues to promote
a trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Outside the Gale
Warning area, fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10
ft are present at the south-central basin. Fresh with locally
strong ENE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate the north-
central basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6
ft are noted at the Gulf of Honduras and near the Windward
Passage. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist
at the northwestern basin, except the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate
to fresh NE to ENE winds with 4 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere
within the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over the north-
central Atlantic will strengthen further across the western
Atlantic Thu afternoon into the weekend. In response, fresh to
strong trades in the south-central basin and Windward Passage
will expand and dominate much of the central and eastern basin,
as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Winds and seas will begin to
gradually diminish Sun through Mon as the Atlantic high pressure
retreats to the northeast.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about a
Meteo-France Gale Warning.

A stationary front reaches southwestward from the north Atlantic
across 31N58W to a 1018 mb low near 29N59W, then continues as a
surface trough to north of the Leeward Islands at 21N63W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is found near these features north
of 20N between 56W and 61W. Strong divergent flow associated with
a pronounced upper-level trough in the vicinity is coupling with
convergent southerly winds to produce scattered moderate
convection north of 21N between 51W and 55W. Aided by upper-level
wind shear, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
evident just north of the Cabo Verde Islands, along the leading
edge of a trade-wind surge. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh with locally strong SE to SW winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft
are found north of 29N between 75W and the Georgia/northern
Florida coast, and near the southeast Bahamas. Otherwise, gentle
to moderate NE to SE to S winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in moderate
easterly swell are present north of 20N between 55W and the
Georgia-Florida coast. For the central and eastern Atlantic north
of 18N between the Africa coast and 55W, moderate to fresh with
locally strong NNE to E to SE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft in
large NE to E swell exist, including the Canary Islands. For the
tropical Atlantic from 05N to 18N/20N between the central Africa
coast and Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and
seas at 6 to 10 ft in moderate to large NE swell are present,
including the Cabo Verde Islands. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 6
ft seas in moderate mixed swells prevail for the rest of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong high pressure centered over the
north-central Atlantic extends a ridge southwestward to southern
Florida. This ridge will weaken modestly Thu and allow a cold
front to sink southeastward to the east of northern Florida,
passing 30N Thu morning. The front is expected to stall along 29N
early Fri. During the weekend, the portion west of 68W will
retreat northward as a warm front, while the portion east of 68W
will move slowly southeastward as a cold front. Strong high
pressure north of this frontal boundary will induce strong NE to
E winds north of 26N and east of 65W Sat and Sun.

$$

Chan
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