[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Feb 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
strong high pressure over the north Atlantic and relatively lower
pressures in Northwest Africa is bringing gale-force northerly
winds near the coast of Morocco. These winds will continue
through late tonight in the marine zone Agadir. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details.

Rough to very rough seas are from 18N northward from 25W
eastward. Strong to near gale-force NE winds in general are
elsewhere from 20N northward from 25W eastward. Strong NE winds
are from 24N northward between 25W and 35W.

Caribbean Gale Warning: Very strong high pressure centered well
north of the area will continue to move slowly northeastward
into the far North Atlantic during the few days. Strong high
pressure will build late this week over the eastern United
States. The pressure gradient between persistent low pressure in
northwest Colombia and the associated ridge will result in fresh
to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. Winds
will pulse nightly to gale speeds off northwest Colombia through
Fri night. Seas with these winds are forecast to build to 8-11
ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends extends from extreme northern
Sierra Leone southwestward to 02N20W to below the Equator
at 25W and continues to 02S30W and to 01S38W. The ITCZ is
not present for the 1800 UTC surface analysis. No significant
convection is noted.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a 1017 mb low in northeast Texas,
southwestward to offshore the coast near Galveston, and continues
to 28N96W and to inland the coast just north of Brownsville. High
pressure ridging extends from strong high pressure that is
centered over north Atlantic southwestward to South Florida.
Strong northeast winds are west of the front with building seas
of 7-10 ft. Scattered showers are north of 27N and west of 95W.
A northwest to southeast oriented trough is inland Mexico from
24N98W to 21N98W to low pressure of 1011 mb near 19N96W and
continues southeastward to near 18N92W. Seas are 5-7 ft over
the northwest part of the basin and 2-4 ft elsewhere, except
3-5 ft in the west-central Gulf and 4-6 ft in the waters
southwest of Louisiana.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from
the Florida Big Bend to just N of Tampico, Mexico, Thu, then
stall and gradually dissipate through Fri. Fresh northeast
to east winds are expected north of the front. Over the weekend,
tr high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will build
into the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details
on the Gale Warning for the waters near the coast of Colombia.

Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas prevail in the
south- central Caribbean offshore of Colombia and south of 13N.
Fresh to strong trades prevail over the remainder of the central
Caribbean between 67W and 80W, including the entrance of the
Windward Passage, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong winds
are also within the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are 3 to 5 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevails

For the forecast, high pressure centered well N of the area will
strengthen into the weekend, causing the fresh to strong trades
in the south-central Caribbean and Windward Passage to expand and
dominate much of the central and eastern basin as well as the
Gulf of Honduras. NE to E winds will pulse to gale-force nightly
offshore Colombia through at least Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force wind warning in the East Atlantic.

A dissipating stationary front passes through 31N56W to 22N61W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue east of the
boundary to 52W and north of 21N. Strong high pressure centered
well NE of Bermuda dominates the Atlantic basin, supporting fresh
to strong winds and 6 to 8 ft seas north of 20N and east of the
front to 40W. West of the front, moderate to fresh trades
support 6 to 8 ft seas south of 26N and west of 61W to the
southern Bahamas. Southerly flow offshore Florida is increasing
to fresh to strong speeds ahead of an incoming cold front, where
seas are 4 to 6 ft.

Farther east, strong high pressure supports prevailing fresh to
strong trades north of 25N between 40W and 30W, where seas are 9
to 11 ft. Outside of the gale force winds, fresh to strong NE-E
winds are north of 16N and east of 30W, where seas are 9 to 12
ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the high pressure centered well NE of
Bermuda will shift east through Thu, but will be replaced by
another high pressure moving offshore the Mid-Atlantic United
States. Between the two highs, a cold front will sink into the NW
waters early Thu morning, then stall along 29N Fri. The boundary
will then gradually dissipate into the weekend. Along and north
of the front, strong NE to E winds are expected into Sat.

$$
Aguirre/Mora
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