[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Feb 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...METEO-FRANCE GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

The current METEO-FRANCE forecast consists of: gale-force winds,
until 29/0300 UTC, in the marine zone AGADIR; until 28/2100 UTC in
the marine zone CANARIAS; and everything was ending at 28/1200
UTC in the marine zone TARFAYA. Please, refer to the METEO-FRANCE
forecast, at:
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2, for details.

Rough to very rough seas are from 18N northward from 25W
eastward. Strong to near gale-force NE winds in general are
elsewhere from 20N northward from 25W eastward. Strong NE winds
are from 24N northward between 25W and 35W.

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

Expect gale-force NE winds, and rough seas, tonight, from 11N to
13N between 74W and 77W. Elsewhere: from 10N to 14N between 70W
and 79W including in the Gulf of Venezuela, strong to near gale-
force NE winds, and rough seas. The gale-force winds will slow
down during the daytime hours of Thursday. The gale-force wind
speeds will return to the area on Thursday night. Expect for the
rest of today until tonight: strong to near gale-force NE to E
winds, and rough seas, from 10N to 13N between 74W and 77W.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal plains of
Guinea, to 02N20W, crossing the Equator along 24W, to 02S30W
02S35W 01S39W. No ITCZ is present. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N southward
between 42W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A ridge
passes through south Florida, into the central sections, and to
the west central Gulf of Mexico. A NW-to-SE oriented Mexico
coastal plains surface trough is along 25N100W, 20N97W, to the
northern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
A cold front is moving through Texas, toward the Gulf coast.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
coastal waters of Louisiana and Texas.

Moderate seas cover the areas that are from SE Louisiana, 88W/89W,
westward. The comparatively highest values of moderate are in the NW
quadrant. Slight seas are elsewhere. Broad moderate to fresh
surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.

As high pressure shifts further E into the Atlantic, a cold front
will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Fresh S
winds and patchy fog are expected over the northern Gulf ahead of
this front. The cold front will stall by Thu night from N of Tampa
Bay to just S of the mouth of the Rio Grande, the lift N and
inland as a warm front by the weekend. A weak N to S aligned
trough will meander across the W Gulf Fri through Sat before
dissipating.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the coastal waters of Colombia.

Expect for the rest of today until tonight: strong to near gale-
force NE to E winds, and rough seas, from 10N to 13N between 74W
and 77W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the eastern one-third
of the area. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are in the NW
quadrant. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are in the SW
quadrant of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to rough seas are from 17N
southward between 70W and 81W. The comparatively highest sea
heights correspond to the areas of the comparatively fastest wind
speeds, that are in the coastal waters of Colombia. Moderate seas
are elsewhere from 81W eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder
of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 28/1200 UTC, are: 0.54 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. This
information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation
Tables/MIATPTPAN.

High pressure centered well N of the area will strengthen late
this week and weekend, causing fresh to strong trades in the
south-central Caribbean and Windward Passage to expand and
dominate much of the central and eastern basin as well as the Gulf
of Honduras. NE to E winds will pulse to gale-force nightly
offshore Colombia through at least Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning in the METEO-FRANCE marine zones.

A stationary front passes through 31N56W 24N60W. A surface trough
continues from 24N60W, to 20N65W, and from the NE Dominican
Republic to NW Haiti. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from 23N northward within 180 nm to the east
of the stationary front. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 20N northward between 40W and 70W, and from 18N to
20N between 60W and the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong NE winds
are within 60 nm of the stationary front 28N northward; and from
24N southward between 64W and 73W to the north of the surface
trough.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is on either side of the
stationary front/trough feature. A surface ridge extends from a
42N48W 1043 mb high pressure center, through 31N67W, to 28N72W,
across the NW Bahamas, to south Florida. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is to the east of the boundary. A 1037 mb
high pressure center is near 38N27W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the areas that
are from 10N northward between 30W and 40W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N northward between
20W and 40W.

Moderate to rough seas are from 19N to 29N between 30W and 50W;
and from 20N to 25N between 65W and 72W. Moderate seas cover the
rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 19N
northward between 35W and 45W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are
from 29N northward from 70W westward. Mostly fresh to some
moderate anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the areas that
are to the west of the stationary front/surface trough boundary.
Mostly fresh to some moderate NE winds are elsewhere from 06N
northward between 35W and 50W. Moderate or slower winds are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A dissipating stationary front extends from 28N55W to just NE of
the Dominican Republic. High pressure centered NE of Bermuda
extends a ridge SW to Central Florida. This ridge will shift east
through Thu, but be replaced by another high pressure moving
offshore the Mid-Atlantic United States. Between the two highs, a
cold front will sink into the NW waters Thu morning, then stall
from just W of Bermuda to near Daytona Beach, Florida, Fri, before
lifting N as a warm front into Fri night. N of this front, strong
NE winds can be expected into the weekend.

$$
mt/sk
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