[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Fri Feb 23 17:50:50 CST 2024


AXNT20 KNHC 232350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Feb 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will
emerge off the Florida coast this evening. Gale force SW winds
are expected ahead of the front across the northern waters, mainly
north of 29N and west of 66W, this evening through Sat afternoon.
Rough to very rough seas in W swell will follow the front, with
seas to 8 ft reaching as far south as 24N on Sun. Strong W winds
will spread across these same waters behind the front Sat through
Sun morning before wind and seas begin to diminish through Mon.
The front will stall from the central Atlantic to Hispaniola Tue.

Marine interests in the areas should plan accordingly. Please,
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from 11N15W to 03N24W to
00N32W. The ITCZ continues from 00N32W to 01S43W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10S to 03N between 16W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

At 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from Cape San Blas, Florida SW
to 26N90W to NE Mexico near 24N97W. Moderate to fresh WNW winds
are ongoing W of the front covering the NE gulf waters while
gentle to moderate SW winds are ahead of the front over the SE
basin. Seas in the 5-6 ft are over the NE basin while 3-4 ft seas
are ahead of the front. Over the western half of the basin, winds
are mainly moderate to fresh with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, The front will reach the SE waters on Sat
morning, and will be southeast of the basin by Sat evening.
Surface high pressure will build in the wake of the front late Sat
through early next week. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow
will set-up over the western Gulf Sun night through Wed ahead of
the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Wed
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA

The pressure gradient between 1017 mb surface high SE of Bermuda
and low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting moderate to fresh
trades over the central and portions of the eastern Caribbean with
locally strong winds off the coast of Colombia. Seas over these
regions of the basin are in the 3-6 ft range. A weak pressure
gradient is over the western part of the basin due to a cold front
moving across the E Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida. This is
resulting in light to gentle variable winds and 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will return to the
south-central Caribbean tonight and persist through the weekend,
strongest at night. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean late
Sat afternoon, and extend from eastern Cuba to the coast of
Quintana Roo, Mexico near 19N87.5W Sun morning, then sink SE and
dissipate from Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras Mon. High
pressure will strengthen across the western Atlantic Mon through
Tue night and produce fresh to strong trade winds across central
portions of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb high is centered just NE of the Bahamas near 29N68W. A
1011 mb surface low near 33N57W with a weakening cold front
extends across the area from 31N56W to 27N57W, continuing as a
frontal trough to 20N63W. East of this front, a stationary front
extends from 31N54W to 20N57W, then a frontal trough continues to
near 15N61W across the Lesser Antilles. Scattered moderate
convection is observed north of 26N, between the stationary front
and 49W. A recent scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong S
winds north of 23N between 50W and 55W. Rough seas are present
east of the front to 50W and north of 20N. West of the front from
55W, gentle to moderate N to NW winds and rough seas dominated by
N to NE swell prevail to 74W. Fresh to strong S to SW and moderate
to rough seas are present from 74W to the east coast of Florida.
Farther east, high pressure prevails across the waters N of 20N.
Fresh to strong winds are noted from 13N to 26N between the west
coast of Africa and 40W, with moderate to fresh E winds elsewhere
south of 20N. Moderate seas generally prevail across this portion
of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W,. the front will drift east, weaken to
a frontal trough today, and drift westward toward the Leeward
Islands on Sat. Winds and seas associated with this system will
improve by Fri night into Sat. A strong cold front will emerge off
the Florida coast this afternoon. Gale force SW winds are
expected ahead of the front across the north waters, mainly N of
29N and W of 66W, this afternoon through Sat afternoon. Rough to
very rough seas in westerly swell will follow the front, with seas
to 8 ft reaching as far S as 24N on Sun. The front will stall
from the central Atlantic to Hispaniola Tue.

$$
Ramos
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