[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231630
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Feb 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will
emerge off the Florida coast this afternoon. Gale force SW winds
are expected ahead of the front across the northern waters,
mainly north of 29N and west of 66W, this afternoon through Sat
afternoon. Rough to very rough seas in W swell will follow the
front, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far south as 24N on Sun.
Strong W winds will spread across these same waters behind the
front Sat through Sun morning before wind and seas begin to
diminish through Mon. The front will stall from the central
Atlantic to Hispaniola Tue.

Marine interests in the areas should plan accordingly. Please,
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W to 02N23W to 04N29W. The ITCZ continues from 04N29W to
01.5N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N
southward, east of 30W, with another area of scattered moderate
convection noted south of 06N and west of 36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the NW Gulf from 30N93W to 27N97W.
Fresh SW winds and moderate seas are ahead of the front over the
NE Gulf, while moderate NW to N winds and seas are present across
the NW portions of the Gulf behind the front. Elsewhere south of
25N, moderate SW winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the front will reach from the western Florida
Panhandle to near Brownsville, Texas by midday, move over the
southern Gulf waters on Sat morning, then southeast of the basin
Sat evening. Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be expected
behind the front with moderate seas. Surface high pressure will
build in the wake of the front late Sat through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA

A frontal trough crosses the Lesser Antilles near 15N61W. Gentle
to moderate NE to E winds prevail across the basin east of 70W,
becoming fresh across the southern waters of the Dominican
Republic south to 14N. Slight to moderate seas are present, except
higher in the Atlantic Passages due to moderate N swell. Moderate
trades and seas extend across the south-central Caribbean, with
fresh NE winds found off the coast of Colombia. Light to gentle E
to SE winds and slight seas are found elsewhere across the NE
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the frontal trough will move slowly eastward
and into the Tropical Atlantic waters today, then drift westward
and dissipate on Sat. Fresh to strong trade winds will return to
the south-central Caribbean tonight and persist through the
weekend, strongest at night. A cold front will reach the NW
Caribbean late Sat afternoon and extend from eastern Cuba to the
coast of Quintana Roo, Mexico, near 19N87.5W Sun morning, then
sink SE and dissipate from Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras Mon.
High pressure will strengthen across the W Atlantic Mon through
Tue night and produce fresh to strong trade winds across central
portions of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb high is centered just NE of the Bahamas near 29N68W. A
1011 mb surface low near 33N57W with a weakening cold front
extends across the area from 31N56W to 27N57W, continuing as a
frontal trough to 20N63W. East of this front, a stationary front
extends from 31N54W to 20N57W, then a frontal trough continues to
near 15N61W across the Lesser Antilles. Scattered moderate
convection is observed north of 26N, between the stationary front
and 49W. A recent scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong S
winds north of 23N between 50W and 55W. Rough seas are present
east of the front to 50W and north of 20N. West of the front from
55W, gentle to moderate N to NW winds and rough seas dominated by
N to NE swell prevail to 74W. Fresh to strong S to SW and moderate
to rough seas are present from 74W to the east coast of Florida.
Farther east, high pressure prevails across the waters N of 20N.
Fresh to strong winds are noted from 13N to 26N between the west
coast of Africa and 40W, with moderate to fresh E winds elsewhere
south of 20N. Moderate seas generally prevail across this portion
of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W,. the front will drift east, weaken to
a frontal trough today, and drift westward toward the Leeward
Islands on Sat. Winds and seas associated with this system will
improve by Fri night into Sat. A strong cold front will emerge off
the Florida coast this afternoon. Gale force SW winds are
expected ahead of the front across the north waters, mainly N of
29N and W of 66W, this afternoon through Sat afternoon. Rough to
very rough seas in westerly swell will follow the front, with seas
to 8 ft reaching as far S as 24N on Sun. The front will stall
from the central Atlantic to Hispaniola Tue.

$$
Nepaul
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