[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182243
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Feb 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is noted over the
far SE basin over the Straits of Florida. Gales have ended
offshore Veracruz, but northerly gales are ongoing behind the
front in the south-central Gulf of Mexico N of the Yucatan
Channel. Seas in the region are 10 to 14 ft, and extend SW into
the Bay of Campeche, where peak seas are around 15 ft.  Gales in
the south-central Gulf off the Yucatan Peninsula will diminish
tonight as the cold front moves SE out of the Gulf of Mexico.
Marine conditions will then begin to improve into Mon. Lingering
strong NW winds will maintain 8-10 ft seas over the Bay of
Campeche, S Gulf, and Yucatan Passage through Mon morning. Please
read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1008 mb low pressure over South Florida
will move NE into the Atlantic this evening then exit area waters
W of Bermuda Mon. Behind the low, strong N winds will increase to
near gale force offshore Florida tonight and Mon, with frequent
gusts to gale-force anticipated. Seas will build to 12 ft where
these strong winds occur, especially in and near the Gulf Stream.
As the low moves away from the area Mon night, conditions will
improve. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 03N14W to 00N42W. No significant convection
is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about a
GALE WARNING.

A 1008 mb low pressure center has moved E and inland over the
Florida Everglades. A cold front extends SW from this low across
the Florida Straits and into Cuba. Outside of the gale warning
area, strong N winds are ongoing over the SE Gulf behind this
cold front. The significant convection along and ahead of the
front has now moved E of the basin, but some scattered moderate
convection prevails behind the front over the SE Gulf, coincident
with the strong winds. Elsewhere, fresh N winds prevail in the NE
and SW Gulf, with gentle to moderate N winds the the NW Gulf. Seas
in the Bay of Campeche are 10 to 14 ft, with seas elsewhere in the
southern Gulf at 8 to 12 ft. Over the northern Gulf, seas are
decaying and range mainly from 4 to 7 ft, with lesser seas over
the coastal shelf waters.

For the forecast, the front will exit the basin tonight allowing
for marine conditions to improve. Rough seas will continue over
portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico into early Mon as high
pressure settles over the region. Fresh southerly return flow is
expected for the western Gulf Wed and Wed night as the high shifts
eastward. These winds diminish Thu as a frontal boundary
approaches the NW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from near Havana, Cuba, to the Gulf of
Honduras. Fresh S winds ar present within about 90 nm E of the
front, with fresh NW winds behind it. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along and withing roughly 90 nm behind the
front. The pressure gradient between high pressure NE of the basin
in the Atlantic and lower pressure over South America is enhancing
tradewinds to strong over the south central and SE Caribbean. Seas
in this part of the basin are 8 to 10 ft. In the NE Caribbean and
waters near the Greater Antilles, fresh E to SE winds prevail with
seas of 4 to 7 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate
winds and seas are present.

For the forecast, winds and seas in the central basin will change
little into early part of the week. The cold front will continue
to move across the NW Caribbean through Mon, then the central
Caribbean through the middle of the week while weakening. Fresh
northwest to north winds will follow the front. Rough seas are
expected in and near the Yucatan Channel tonight, thereafter,
gradually subside.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING.

A 1008 mb low pressure is noted over South Florida. A cold front
is nearing the basin in the Florida Straits, with a squall line
with strong winds and possibly severe thunderstorms ahead of the
front crossing 80W offshore South Florida southward toward Cuba. A
generally stationary front extends NE from the low pressure to
another low pressure, of 1012 mb, centered near 30N73W. However,
the portion of the front from the NW Bahamas westward is now
retreating northward as a warm front. To the north of the
boundary, scattered moderate convection is prevail, especially
within about 120 nm of the warm front. N of the boundary, strong
NE winds are occurring, with seas of 7 to 10 ft.

Elsewhere across the basin, mainly moderate S winds are ahead of
the front, N of the Antilles and W of 55W. For waters S of 20N
and for waters E of 40W, moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing,
with strong NE winds in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. A zone
of gentle to moderate winds exists N of 20N between 40W and 50W.
Seas of 8 to 11 ft dominate waters E of 50W, with 12 to 14 ft seas
near and within 180 nm W of the Canary Islands, generated from
early gales in that region. To the W, seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure currently over
South Florida will track NE and across the NW Bahamas tonight.
Fresh to strong winds will continue near and to the northwest of
the low and associated along with rough seas, with the potential
for more widespread strong and near gale force winds near the
track of the low. A broad area of fresh to strong northwest winds
will be over the waters northeast of the Bahamas on Wed. These
winds will shift to the northeast part of the area Thu as fresh
southwest to west winds develop over the waters northeast of
northern Florida in advance of the next frontal system.

$$
Konarik
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