[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181707
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Feb 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from 1008
mb low pressure near 25N84W to western Cuba. N to NW gale force
winds continue in the southwest Gulf of Mexico off the coast of
Veracruz, and in the south-central Gulf of Mexico off the coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas greater than 12 ft are south of 88N
between 87W and 97W, with peak seas to 20 ft near 22N93W. Gales
near Veracruz will diminish this afternoon as the low tracks east-
northeastward toward Florida and the front moves into the NW
Caribbean. Gales in the south-central Gulf off the Yucatan
Peninsula will diminish tonight. Marine conditions will then begin
to improve overnight. Lingering strong NW winds will maintain
8-10 ft seas over the Bay of Campeche, S Gulf, and Yucatan Passage
through tomorrow morning. Please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a GALE WARNING
for the Canarias Offshore Zone. NE winds to Force 8, with severe
gusts, is expected to continue between the Canary Islands until
18/2100 UTC. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
Meteo-France at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 03N14W to 03S42W. No significant convection
is noted at this time. The Monsoon Trough remains inland over
Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about a
GALE WARNING.

A strong cold front extends from 1008 mb low pressure near 25N84W
to western Cuba. A stalled front extends from the low pressure
eastward across the northern Florida Keys. Recent satellite
scatterometer data shows strong to near-gale force winds in the
vicinity of these features. A squall line is analyzed from the
Dry Tortugas to near Havana, Cuba. NWS Key West Doppler Radar data
indicates possible waterspouts and gusty winds to gale force
along the squall line, which will move eastward across the
Straits of Florida over the next couple of hours. Scattered
showers and tstorms are elsewhere over the eastern Gulf. Outside
of the gale warning area, fresh to strong N winds prevail across
the Gulf, decreasing to moderate speeds along the northern Gulf
Coast. Seas greater than 12 ft are south of 88N between 87W and
97W, with peak seas to 20 ft near 22N93W. Seas 8-11 ft are from
26N to 28N between 85W and 96W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, 4-7 ft seas in the SE Gulf will build to 8-11 ft
later this afternoon. The front and low pressure will then exit
the basin tonight allowing for marine conditions to improve.
Rough seas will continue over portions of the southern Gulf of
Mexico into early Mon as high pressure settles over the region.
Fresh southerly return flow is expected for the western Gulf Wed
and Wed night as the high shifts eastward. These winds diminish
Thu as a new frontal boundary approaches the NW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong cold front has entered the NW Caribbean, and is currently
analyzed from western Cuba to central Belize. Strong S winds are
along the leading edge of the front according to the latest
satellite scatterometer data, with moderate to fresh NW winds
behind the front. Seas are 4-7 ft in the NW and SW Caribbean.
Showers and tstorms are along the cold front. A tight pressure
gradient between central Atlantic high pressure ridging and
relatively lower pressure in Colombia is maintaining fresh to
strong trades and seas of 8-9 ft across the central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail in the E Caribbean with 4-7 ft
seas.

For the forecast, winds and seas in the central basin will change
little into the early part of the week. A cold front will move
across the northwestern Caribbean today through Mon, and across
the central Caribbean through the middle of the upcoming week
while weakening. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will
follow the front. Rough seas are expected in and near the Yucatan
Channel tonight, thereafter, gradually subside.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an EAST
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING.

1012 mb low pressure is centered near 29N74W. Frontal boundaries
extend from the low southwest to the Straits of Florida and
northeast out of the discussion waters. Moderate to fresh NE
winds are north of the fronts, along with scattered showers. Seas
are 4-7 ft near these features. A surface trough is from 31N47W to
22N46W. Across the basin north of 20N, trades are gentle to
moderate. South of 20N, trades are moderate to fresh. In the East
Atlantic north of 20N east of 20W, NE winds are fresh to strong
surrounding the Gale Warning area. Seas are 8-11 ft from the
equator to 31N between 55W and 30W, increasing to 12 ft east of
30W with peak seas to 15 ft near 29N20W. Swell direction for these
elevated seas is NW with a period of 12-14 seconds.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will become
stationary today from near 31N67W to the NW Bahamas, to South
Florida and to low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The
atlantic low will lift north of 31N today. The low over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico will track east-northeastward along the
stationary front to over South Florida today, reaching the western
Atlantic waters near the NW Bahamas tonight. Fresh to strong
winds will continue near and to the northwest of the frontal
boundary along with rough seas, with the potential for more
widespread strong and near gale force winds near the track of the
low. A broad area of fresh to strong northwest winds will over the
waters northeast of the Bahamas on Wed. These winds will shift to
the northeast part of the area Thu as fresh southwest to west
winds develop over the waters northeast of northern Florida in
advance of the next frontal system.

$$
Mahoney
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