[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150419
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Feb 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure building
over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over the
western Caribbean Sea and in South America will result in a
tightening of the pressure gradient across the Caribbean. Winds
will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu
night. Seas will build to near 12 ft during the period of gale
force winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long period NW swell generated
from a hurricane-force low over the northern Atlantic will impact
the central Atlantic waters. Seas with this swell will peak near
20 ft over the discussion waters north of 30N between 45W and 55W
on today and tonight. The leading edge of 12 ft seas will
propagate SE over the next couple of days, covering the waters
roughly north of 23N between 25W and 60W late Fri. Afterwards,
areal coverage of 12 ft seas will start to decrease as seas
gradually subside below 12 ft through the weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic on the coast of Liberia
near 06N10W and continues to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from
02N20W to 02S35W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between
20W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern continues across the Gulf between high
pressure centered over northern Georgia and a pair of weak troughs
over the west coast of Florida and along 90W from the central Gulf
to the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds off the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula, but light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure will shift eastward through
Fri. Weak low pressure ill develop over the NW Gulf on Sat and
track eastward toward the eastern Gulf through late Sat. The
attendant cold front is expected to reach from the Florida Big
Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon, and from near Ft.
Myers, Florida to the Yucatan Sat night. Fresh to strong winds and
rough seas are expected behind the front through the weekend.
Winds to minimal gale force are possible in the wake of the front
during the upcoming weekend, especially in the western Gulf.
Mostly fresh winds will pulse off the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula at night Wed and Thu in the late afternoons and
evenings.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning off Colombia.

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to central Honduras.
A few showers may be active near the front between Jamaica and
Grand Cayman Island. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
indicated moderate to fresh trade winds across the south- central
Caribbean. The scatterometer pass missed the central coast of
Colombia, but strong to near-gale force winds are likely already
active there between high pressure north of the area and 1007 mb
low pressure over northern Colombia. A concurrent altimeter pass
indicated 8 to 10 ft in the same areas. Gentle to moderate breezes
and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure building north of the area is
supporting fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough
seas over the central Caribbean. Winds will reach gale force off
the Colombia coast tonight, Thu night and Fri night, with strong
trade winds continuing into the weekend. Meanwhile, a stationary
front extends from eastern Cuba to northeast Honduras. The front
will slowly dissipate through late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on significant
swell over the north-central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N50W to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong
SW winds are evident on recent scatterometer satellite data within
240 nm east of the front north of 27N. Fresh to strong W to NW
winds are also noted west of the front to 70W, mainly north of
29N. Concurrent altimeter satellite passes show the large NW swell
discussed in the Special Features section approaching the area
from the north, mainly between 50W and 70W. 1021 mb high pressure
is centered southeast of the front near 22N45W. This is part of a
broader ridge extending across the eastern Atlantic north of 20N
and east of 55W, supporting mostly moderate trade winds farther
south and gentle breezes elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas
in NW to N swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will reach from near
25N55W to 21N65W and to the eastern tip of Cuba by early this
afternoon, then stall along 21N east of 76W on Fri while it
weakens through Fri night. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds
behind the front north of 29N will shift east of 55W late
tonight. Rough to very rough seas north of 25N and east of 73W
will translate E and SE of the forecast waters on Sat. Winds will
diminish from W to E on Fri as high pressure builds along 30N in
the wake of the front. The rough to very rough seas will persist
through the weekend. Another cold front will emerge off the
Florida coast later in the weekend, bringing fresh to strong winds
and rough seas north of 25N and east of 70W through Mon.

$$
Christensen
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