[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142117
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Feb 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure will build over the
western Atlantic. The combination of this high pressure and
relatively lower pressure over the western Caribbean Sea and in
South America will result in a tightening of the pressure gradient
across the Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale force off the
coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night. Seas will build to near
12 ft during the period of gale force winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long period NW swell generated
from a hurricane force low over the northern Atlantic will impact
the central Atlantic waters. Seas greater than 12 ft currently
cover the waters N of 29N between 48W and 68W, peaking near 15 ft
this afternoon. Seas with this swell will peak near 20 ft over
the discussion waters N of 30N between 45W and 55W on Thu and Thu
night. The leading edge of 12 ft seas will propagate SE over the
next couple of days, covering the waters roughly N of 24N between
26W and 59W late Fri. Afterwards, areal coverage of 12 ft seas
will start to decrease as seas gradually subside below 12 ft
through the weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern
Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from
05N16W to 02N30W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 00N to 10N between 15W and 30W, from 00N
to 05N between 30W and 38W, and from 02S to 01N between 42W and
50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to
moderate return flow prevails W of 94W, with gentle to locally
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range, reaching
near 4 ft over the SE Gulf.

For the forecast, The area of high pressure will begin to shift
eastward through Fri. A low pressure system will develop over the
NW Gulf on Sat and track eastward toward the eastern Gulf through
late Sat. The attendant cold front is expected to reach from the
Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon, and from
near Ft. Myers, Florida to the Yucatan Sat night. Fresh to strong
winds and rough seas are expected behind the front through the
weekend. Winds to minimal gale force are possible in the wake of
the front during the upcoming weekend, especially in the western
Gulf. Mostly fresh winds will pulse off the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula at night Wed and Thu in the late afternoons and
evenings.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning off Colombia.

A stationary front extends from E Cuba to Honduras. Moderate
winds, and seas of 4-5 ft are W of the front. Fresh to locally
strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean, with
moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere S of 18N and E of 82W. Light
to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range
over the south central Caribbean, and 307 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the area is
supporting fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough
seas over the central Caribbean. Winds will reach gale force off
the Colombia coast tonight and Thu night with strong winds
persisting into the weekend. Meanwhile, a stationary front
extends from central Cuba to northeast Honduras. The front will
slowly dissipate through late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on significant
swell over the north-central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N52W to central Cuba. Fresh to near
gale force winds are N of 27N within 150 nm east of the front.
Moderate winds are west of the front to 70W. Light winds are
elsewhere W of the front. Aside from the large swell, seas greater
than 8 ft cover the waters N of 27N between 41W and 73W. Farther
east, a 1020 mb high is centered near 23N44W. Light winds are in
the vicinity of this high. Moderate winds prevail S of 20N, with
gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere N of 20N. Seas of 3-6
ft are noted S of 27N and W of 55W. Elsewhere, seas of 6-8 ft
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will reach from near 31N47W
to the southern Turks and Caicos Islands by Thu morning, then
reach the far southern waters by early Fri morning. Fresh to
strong winds and rough to very rough seas are expected on either
side of the front through Thu night. Winds will diminish from W to
E on Fri as high pressure builds along 30N in the wake of the
front. The rough to very rough seas will persist through the
weekend. Another cold front will push off the Florida coast later
in the weekend, bringing fresh to strong winds and rough seas N of
25N and E of 70W through Mon.

$$
AL
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