[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Feb 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from Bermuda to
central Cuba. Gale- force winds are north of 30N and east of the
front to 68W, where seas are in the 10-13 ft range. The area of
gale- force winds will lift north of the area overnight as the
parent low responsible for the winds moves further NE and away
from the area.

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure will build in the wake of
the cold front discussed above. This will tighten the pressure
gradient across the Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale force off
the coast of Colombia Wed night and Thu night. Seas will build to
near 12 ft during the period of gale force winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
05N15W to 02N30W to 00N35W. Scattered moderate convection is
active from 02N to 04N between 25W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1022 mb high pressure is centered over the northwest Gulf just
south of the Sabine Pass. Gentle to moderate northerly breezes are
noted across the Gulf, except for light E to SE breezes over the
northwest Gulf. Combines seas are 5 to 8 ft east of 90W due to
lingering northerly swell, and 4 to 6 ft west of 90W, except for 2
to 4 ft in the far northwest Gulf. No significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is noted and no fog is being reported at
this time.

For the forecast, the high pressure is the main feature
controlling the weather pattern across the basin. It will
gradually shift eastward through Fri. A low pressure system is
forecast to develop over the NW Gulf late Fri, and track eastward
toward the eastern Gulf by late Sat. The attendant cold front is
expected to reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz,
Mexico Sat afternoon, and from near Ft. Myers, FLorida to western
Cuba Sat night. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected
on either side of the front. Winds to minimal gale force are
possible in the wake of the front during the upcoming weekend.
Mostly fresh winds will pulse off the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula at night Wed and Thu as a trough develops there in the
late afternoons and evenings.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning off Colombia.

A cold front is over the northwest Caribbean from central Cuba to
central Honduras. Recent buoy observations indicate fresh to
strong northerly winds west of the front from the Yucatan Channel
to the Bay Islands of Honduras, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh to
strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas persist over the
southeast and south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds
and highest seas off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela.
Generally moderate winds and seas persist elsewhere. A few showers
are noted over the Gulf of Honduras and east of the Windward
Islands.

For the forecast, the front will stall from east-central
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by late Wed, then will
dissipate through late Thu. High pressure building north of the
area in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong trade
winds and moderate to rough seas over the southern Caribbean
through Sat, with winds possibly reaching gale force off Colombia
at night Wed through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning in the western Atlantic.

A cold front extends from Bermuda to central Cuba. Recent
scatterometer satellite data indicates strong to near-gale force
winds near the front where it crosses 31N. The gale warning has
been extended to 06 UTC, when it will expire. Buoy observations
show wind are diminishing fairly quickly farther west off
northeast Florida as high pressure builds over the region in the
wake of the front. The buoy observations along with altimeter
satellite data confirm large combined seas persist mainly north of
28N and west of 30N in a combination of the winds associated with
the front and lingering swell from an earlier storm system over
the north Atlantic. A trough is analyzed from 31N30W to 27N37W. The
remainder of the Atlantic discussion area is dominated by 1022 mb
high pressure centered near 23N50W, supporting moderate to fresh
trade winds south of 15N and west of 30W, where combined seas are
7 to 9 ft in northerly swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7
ft combined seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will reach from near
31N58W to east central Cuba by Wed morning, and from near 25N55W
to the southern Turks and Caicos Islands by Thu morning, then
reach the far southern waters by early Fri morning. Minimal gale
force winds are expected ahead of the front through late tonight
over the far northern waters. Fresh to strong winds and rough to
very rough seas are expected to continue on either side of the
front through the remainder of the week. Winds will diminish from
W to E through Fri as high pressure builds along 30N in the wake
of the front, although large seas are likely to linger a little
longer.


$$
Christensen
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