[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Feb 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N70W to western
Cuba. Gale- force winds are N of 30N and east of the front to 68W,
where seas are in the 9-12 ft range. The area of gale- force winds
will lift N of the area tonight as the parent low responsible for
the winds moves further NE and away from the area.

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure will build in the wake of
the cold front discussed above. This will tighten the pressure
gradient across the Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale force off
the coast of Colombia Wed night and Thu night. Seas will build to
near 12 ft during the period of gale force winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W to 02N24W. The ITCZ continues from 02N24W to 02N39W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
02N to 05N between 06W and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02S to 03N between 40W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted E of 90W, with mainly gentle winds W of
90W. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range E of 90W, and 3-6 ft W of 90W.

For the forecast, high pressure is taking control of the weather
pattern across the Gulf waters. As a result, winds and seas will
continue to diminish tonight. Fresh winds will pulse off the west
coast of Yucatan Peninsula Wed and Thu as a trough develops there
in the evenings. A low pressure system is forecast to develop over
the northwest Gulf late Fri. The attendant cold front will reach
from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon,
and from near Ft. Myers, FL to western Cuba Sat night. Fresh to
strong winds and rough seas are expected on both sides of the
front. Winds to minimal gale-force are possible in the wake of the
front during the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning off Colombia.

A cold front is over the NW Caribbean from W Cuba to Honduras.
Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are west of the front.
Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-9 ft prevail over the south
central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft
are elsewhere E of 80W as well as S of 15N W of 80W. Light to
gentle winds, and seas of 2-4 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will stall from central Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras by late Wed, and then will dissipate through late
Thu. High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the
front will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas over the southern Caribbean through Sat, with winds
possibly reaching gale force off Colombia at night Wed through
Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning in the western Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N70W to western Cuba. Please see
Special Features section above for more on the gales east of the
front. Elsewhere, strong to near- gale force winds prevail N of
28N and W of 60W, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere N of 25N
and W of 55W. Seas are 8-10 ft N of 28N and W of 60W, reaching
heights greater than 12 ft N of 30N between 70W and 77W. Farther
east, a 1019 mb high pressure area is centered near 23.5N50W.
Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere W of 30W, with mainly
gentle winds E of 30W. Seas of 8-10 ft are found N of 26N between
32W and 55W as well as S of 15N and W of 43W. Elsewhere, seas of
4-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will reach from 31N58W to
central Cuba by Wed morning, and from 26N55W to the Turks and
Caicos Islands by Thu morning, then move E of the area by Fri
morning. Minimal gale force winds are expected ahead of the front
through this evening. Then, fresh to strong winds and rough to
very rough seas will persist on either side of the front over the
next couple of days. Winds will diminish from west to east through
Fri as high pressure builds along 30N in the wake of the front,
although large wave heights will persist a little longer.

$$
AL
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