[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110444
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Feb 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1025
mb high pressure system south of Bermuda and lower pressures in NW
South America result in strong to gale-force NE-E winds and rough
to very rough seas from 11N to 13N and between 73W and 77W,
offshore Colombia. Seas will peak near 14 ft tonight. These
conditions will prevail through Sun morning and pulse again to
gale force Sun night.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A strong non-tropical cyclone
in the north Atlantic is producing a large area of long period N
to NW swell, resulting in seas of 12-15 ft occurring N of 26N and
between 35W and 60W. These conditions are mainly prevalent NW of a
cold front that extends from 31N34W to 24N42W to 15N60W. This
swell will move SE Sun, with seas falling below 12 ft W of 35W
Sun night. Mariners are urged exercise caution in the central
Atlantic Ocean, due to the hazardous marine conditions as a result
of this swell.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move off
the Texas coast late Sun. Behind the front, NW winds will briefly
increase to gale-force W of 95W on Mon. Seas may approach 12 ft
where the gales occur. The front is expected to reach from the
mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz, Mexico on Mon morning,
and move SE of the Gulf waters late Tue. High pressure will build
across the basin behind the front with quickly improving marine
conditions

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 08N19W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N19W to 01N33W and to 01N50W. No deep
convection is observed near these boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning issued for the western Gulf of Mexico.

A 1025 mb high pressure system south of Bermuda extends a ridge
westward and dominates the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary cold front
over SE Texas and Louisiana result in increased cloudiness and a
few showers over the NW Gulf waters. Patchy fog is possible over
the far NW and west-central Gulf tonight. Dry weather conditions
prevail elsewhere.

Moderate to locally strong southerly winds are found in the
eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, especially east of 90W. Seas
in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly
winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the western half, mainly
north of 21N. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are present
south of 21N.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong return flow is expected
across the Gulf region through Sun ahead of the next cold front
expected to move off the Texas coast late Sun. Behind the front,
NW winds will briefly increase to gale-force W of 95W on Mon.
The front is expected to reach from the mouth of the Mississippi
River to Veracruz, Mexico on Mon morning, and move SE of the
Gulf waters late Tue. High pressure will build across the basin
behind the front with quickly improving marine conditions.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning in effect for Colombian coastal waters.

The previously-mentioned high pressure system north of the
Caribbean islands extends southward into the region. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in NW South America
result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the
Caribbean basin, culminating in gale-force winds off NW Colombia
as discussed in the Special Features section. The strongest winds
outside of the south-central Caribbean are evident in the north-
central Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Moderate
seas prevail in the Caribbean waters outside of the south-central
Caribbean.

A dissipating cold front reaches from the far north-central
Atlantic to the central Lesser Antilles, where a few showers are
affecting the islands. Shallow pockets of moisture travel with the
trade winds generating isolated showers in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, large N to NE swell from the Atlantic will
continue to impact the NE Caribbean and passages through Sun
before subsiding on Mon. High pressure over the western Atlantic
will move slowly E to SE through Mon. The pressure gradient
between this system and the Colombian low will support gale force
winds near the coast of Colombia at night through Sun night. Fresh
to strong SE winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras
tonight and gradually spread through the Yucatan Channel Sun and
Mon as the Atlantic high shifts SE into the central Atlantic, and
a cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. The front
will enter the NW Caribbean on Tue, then stall from central Cuba
to the Gulf of Honduras on Wed and dissipate. Gale conditions are
possible near the coast of Colombia Wed night and Thu night as
high pressure builds again in the wake of the front and N of the
basin

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
ongoing significant swell in the north-central tropical Atlantic.

A 1025 mb high pressure system south of Bermuda dominates the
western Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to
locally strong easterly winds south of 25N and west of 60W. Seas
in these waters are 7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and
seas of 4-7 ft are evident west of 75W. In the remainder of the
western Atlantic, west of 60W, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate to rough seas are prevalent.

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N34W and
continues southwestward to 21N46W, where it becomes a dissipating
cold front to the central Lesser Antilles. Isolated showers are
noted near the boundary. Fresh to locally strong westerly winds
are present north of 27N and between the front and 53W. Fresh SW
winds are occurring ahead of the front to 27W and north of 27N,
along with moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a 1025 mb high pressure located near 29N65W
dominates most of the forecast region. Rough to very rough seas in
excess of 12 ft will continue to affect the waters N of 27N and E
of 57W through tonight before gradually subsiding on Sun. Winds
will diminish from west to east through Sun as the front moves SE
and weakens, and the aforementioned high pressure slides eastward
across the area. Strong S to SW winds will develop off NE Florida
on Mon ahead of the next cold front forecast to exit the SE U.S.
and N Florida Tue morning. The front will reach from near Bermuda
to the NW Bahamas by Tue evening, then drift SE while weakening by
Wed. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and building seas will follow
the front.

$$
Delgado
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