[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102251
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Feb 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: Strong to gale force NE to E winds and
rough to very rough seas are ongoing from 11N to 13N between 73W
and 77W, offshore Colombia. These conditions will prevail through
Sun morning, due to a tight pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the area and lower pressure over South America. Gale
force winds over the waters N of Colombia will pulse again Sun
night.

SIGNIFICANT ATLANTIC SWELL: Seas of 12 to 15 ft are being
observed N of 25N between 35W and 65W, due to long period N and NW
swell generated from a strong low pressure well N of the area.
These conditions are mainly prevalent NW of a cold front that
extends from 31N36W to 24N44W to 16N60W. This well will move SE
through the weekend, with seas falling below 12 ft W of 35W Sun
night. Mariners are urged exercise caution during the next few
days in the central Atlantic Ocean, due to the hazardous marine
conditions as a result of this swell.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: By Monday morning, a cold front will
extend from 30N89W to 19N95W. Behind the front, strong to near
gale-force NW to N winds will prevail along with rough seas. S of
26W, gales will develop Mon. Seas may approach 12 ft where the
gales occur. The front will move quickly SE and out of the Gulf by
Mon night, ending gales.


Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes out of Sierra Leone near 08N12W to
06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 03N26W to 02N36W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of these
features, S of 10N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
gale warning issued for western portions of the Gulf of Mexico
Mon.

Currently, fresh to locally strong SW winds envelop the eastern
Gulf, with moderate to fresh SE winds in the west. Seas of 3 to 6
ft dominate the basin, except 2 to 4 ft seas are observed off the
western Yucatan Peninsula and close to the Florida coast.

Moderate to fresh return flow will generally prevail into Sun
over the Gulf as high pressure centered along the mid-Atlantic
coast of the U.S. slides E into the N Atlantic. Patchy fog is
possible over the far NW and west-central Gulf tonight ahead of a
cold front that will move off the Texas coast last Sun. This
front will stretch from the mouth of the Mississippi River to
Veracruz, Mexico Mon morning, then move SE of the basin Tue. West
of the front, fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas will
prevail. Ahead of the front, fresh to locally strong S to SW winds
and moderate to rough seas will dominate. Looking ahead, high
pressure will build across the basin behind the front with quickly
improving marine conditions.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning in effect for Colombian coastal waters.

NE to E moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas dominate the
eastern basin. In the NW Caribbean, fresh SW winds and moderate
seas prevail, with moderate winds and slight seas occurring in the
SW. Fresh to strong winds should develop tonight and prevail over
the central Caribbean through Sun night.

Large N to NE swell will continue to impact the regional Atlantic
waters and Caribbean passages over the weekend before subsiding
on Mon. High pressure will prevail across the western Atlantic and
move slowly E-SE through Mon. Fresh to strong trade winds and
building seas will prevail over the central Caribbean through
early next week, while gentle to moderate E winds and moderate
seas prevail elsewhere. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop
across the Gulf of Honduras tonight and gradually spread through
the Yucatan Channel Sun and Mon as the Atlantic high shifts SE
into the central Atlantic, and a cold front moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico. The front will enter the NW Caribbean Tue
night then stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula on Wed
and dissipate.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
ongoing significant swell in portions of the central Atlantic.

Elsewhere, rough seas encompass a large area from the Greater
Antilles N, between 30W and 70W. These rough seas will continue to
impact most waters N of 15N and E of 60W through Mon. For the
remainder of Atlantic waters, generally moderate seas prevail.
Fresh cyclonic wind flow is from 25N northward between 30W and
60W. Fresh to locally strong E winds are noted S of 24N between
70W and 80W. Fresh NE winds are from 15N southward from 30W
westward, and from 14N to 22N between 20W and 30W. Moderate or
slower winds are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

For the forecast, high pressure of 1023 mb located near 30N68W
dominates most of the forecast region. Winds will diminish from
west to east through Sun as a cold front moves SE and weakens,
and the aforementioned high pressure slides eastward across the
area. Strong S to SW winds will develop off NE Florida on Mon
ahead of the next cold front forecast to exit the SE U.S. and N
Florida Tue morning. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the
NW Bahamas by Tue evening, then drift SE while weakening by Wed.
Fresh to strong W to NW winds and building seas will follow the
front.

$$
Konarik
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