[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Feb 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a low pressure W
of Bermuda to 31N66W to the Bahamas. Ahead of the front, N of 27N
and E to 62W, scattered moderate convection is occurring. Expect
W to N gale-force winds and very rough seas behind the front N of
26N between 62W and 72W today, spreading E with time through Fri.
Seas currently 12 to 14 ft will increase to up to 20 ft tonight
into Fri. Winds will fall below gale force Fri night, with
gradually decreasing winds and seas into Sat.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, that are issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 07N17W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from
05N22W to 02N27W to 01N35W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 09N along the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge associated with high pressure centered over SE
Texas is leading to light to gentle mainly NE winds. Seas are 2 to
4 ft in the eastern Gulf and less than 2 ft in the west. Dry
conditions prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will lead to quiescent marine
conditions that will prevail through Fri. Fresh to strong SE to S
winds and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the
western Gulf Fri night, then shift east into Sun, in advance of a
cold front. By Sun night, this cold front is expected to move E
of the Gulf, with strong to possibly gale-force W to NW winds
along with rough seas expanding across much of the basin Mon
through Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The surface trough over the far NE Caribbean has retreated
northeastward and dissipated and there is no significant
convection over the basin. Fresh NE winds are present in the SW
Caribbean, with mainly moderate NE winds in the NW. Winds are
mostly gentle over the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas are 5
to 7 ft in the SW, 3 to 5 ft in the NW, and 2 to 4 ft in the
central and E.

For the forecast, fresh N winds will diminish offshore Nicaragua
today. The pressure gradient across the central Caribbean will
force fresh to locally strong NE winds offshore Colombia tonight.
Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to be quiescent through
Sat. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sun
evening, preceded by fresh southerly winds to the W of 75W. Behind
the front, strong to near gale- force westerly winds will build
across the Yucatan Channel and extreme NW Caribbean Mon and Mon
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale warning in effect for portions of Atlantic waters S of
Bermuda through Fri.

A dissipating cold front extends from 31N45W to 20N62W. Ahead of
the front, N of 27N and E to 40W, scattered moderate convection is
ongoing along with moderate S winds. Behind the front, light to
gentle winds prevail W of 60W. Elsewhere E of 60W, moderate trades
dominate S of 22N with gentle E winds to the N. Waters W of 60W
are being dominated by the low pressure and cold front that are
detailed in the Special Features section. Outside of gale
conditions, strong cyclonic winds dominate waters N of 22N, W to
78W, with remaining waters mainly in moderate to fresh winds.

N of 22N and W of 40W, seas of 8 to 11 ft dominate, with 12 ft
seas or higher confined N of 28N between 45W and 55W, and N of 24N
between 67W and 78W. Peak seas in the latter area of very rough
seas are now reaching 15 to 16 ft. There is also a zone of 8 to 10
ft seas over the deep tropical Atlantic, S of 15N between 35W and
50W. Elsewhere over open waters of the basin, seas are 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, low pressure W of Bermuda will strengthen as it
moves ESE along and just N of 31N through Fri, before lifting NE
away from area waters. Strong to gale- force cyclonic winds and
rough to very rough seas will accompany this broad low pressure
for waters N of 24N into Fri. Another cold front will move SE
across northern waters Fri night into Sat night, bringing fresh to
strong W winds on both sides of the front, N of 28N into Sun. Low
pressure and a new frontal system will move across the NW waters
Mon.

$$
Konarik
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