[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Feb 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

Expect W-to-NW gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas,
from 26N northward between 69W and 73W, from 01/0600 UTC until
Thursday night. The area of gale-force winds, and rough to very
rough seas still, from 27N northward between 54W and 67W, will
continue from Thursday night until Friday night. The marine
conditions will improve considerably on Saturday, as a weak
frontal system moves through the region. A first cold front passes
through 31N71W, to the Bahamas near 24N76W, to Cuba near 21N79W.
A second cold front is about 170 nm to the northwest of the first
cold front. Strong to near gale-force winds are elsewhere from 25N
northward from 68W westward. The winds are from the W and the SW
to the east of the first cold front. The winds are from the W and
the NW in the rest of the area. Moderate to fresh W and SW winds
are from 22N to 25N between 68W and the first cold front. Moderate
to rough seas in general are from 22N northward from 50W
westward.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, that are issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 07N17W and 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from
05N22W, 02N27W 01N35W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 03N to 08N between 07W and 20W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from
60W eastward. Broken to overcast high level clouds are from 20N
southward from 30W eastward, and they are moving toward the
northeast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the Texas/Louisiana border, into
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico along 95W/96W. Moderate or slower anticyclonic
winds are from 90W westward. Mostly moderate to some fresh
northerly winds are elsewhere. Slight seas span the area.

Weak high pressure is centered across eastern Texas. Aside from
some moderate NW winds in the NE Gulf tonight, quiescent marine
conditions will prevail through Fri as high pressure dominates.
Fresh to strong SE to S winds and scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop over the western Gulf Fri night, then shift
east into Sun, in advance of a cold front. By Sun night, this cold
front is expected to move E of the Gulf, with strong to near
gale-force W to NW winds expanding across much of the basin Mon
into Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic Ocean surface trough is along 20N59W, to the NW corner
of Puerto Rico. Rainshowers are possible from 17N in the Caribbean
Sea to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 59W and the Mona Passage.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level
clouds, and isolated moderate, are spread throughout the area.

Fresh to strong northerly winds are from 10N to 14N between 81W
and the coast of Central America from Costa Rica to Nicaragua.
Mostly fresh to some moderate northerly winds are elsewhere from
the Windward Passage westward. Fresh NE winds are within 125 nm to
the north of the coast of Venezuela between 68W and 71W. Moderate
or slower NE-to-E winds are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea.
Moderate to rough seas are from the NE coast of Nicaragua
southward from the Windward Passage westward. The comparatively
highest sea heights are in the offshore waters of the east central
coast of Nicaragua. Some moderate seas off the northern coast of
Colombia. Slight to moderate seas cover the rest of the area.

Fresh to locally strong N winds will continue offshore of
Nicaragua through Thu morning, behind a dissipating frontal
trough. The pressure gradient across the central Caribbean will
force fresh to locally strong NE winds during the late nights and
early mornings north of Colombia through Thu night. Elsewhere,
winds and seas are forecast to be quiescent through Sat. A cold
front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sun evening, preceded
by fresh southerly winds to the W of 75W. Strong to near gale-
force westerly winds will build across the Yucatan Channel and
extreme NW Caribbean late Mon. For the forecast, fresh to locally
strong N winds will continue offshore of Nicaragua through Thu
morning, behind a dissipating frontal trough. The pressure
gradient across the central Caribbean will force fresh to locally
strong NE winds during the late nights and early mornings north of
Colombia through Thu night. Elsewhere, winds and seas are
forecast to be quiescent through Sat. A cold front is forecast to
enter the NW Caribbean Sun evening, preceded by fresh southerly
winds to the W of 75W. Strong to near gale-force westerly winds
will build across the Yucatan Channel and extreme NW Caribbean
late Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the Atlantic Ocean, for the area that
is about 500 nm to the east of the east central Florida coast, and
about 320 nm to the NE of the central Bahamas.

A cold front passes through 31N45W, to 26N50W, and 20N59W.
A surface trough continues from 20N59W to the NW corner of Puerto
Rico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 26N northward between 39W and the cold front. Isolated
moderate in general is elsewhere from 20N northward between 30W
and 60W. Rainshowers are possible from 17N in the Caribbean Sea
to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 59W and the Mona Passage.

A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 27N59W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is between the central Atlantic Ocean cold
front, and the two cold fronts that are in the area of the gale-
force wind warning. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from
10N northward from the central Atlantic Ocean cold front eastward.

Fresh NE winds are from 15N southward between 35W and 60W.
Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.
Moderate to rough seas are from 06N to 10N between 50W and 55W.
Moderate seas are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

A weakening cold front extending from 21N55W to just NE of the
Virgin Islands will stall then dissipate Thu. Low pressure between
Bermuda and South Carolina will ESE just N of 31N through Fri,
before lifting NE away from the area. Strong to gale- force
cyclonic winds will accompany this broad low pressure for waters N
of 24N tonight into Fri. Marine conditions will improve Sat as
another cold front moves E across the region. Low pressure and a
new frontal system will move across the NW waters late Mon.

$$
mt/sk
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