[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WARNING...

Near gale-force to gale-force NE winds, and rough seas of 8-12 ft
are expected to develop over Colombia offshore waters tonight.
Winds are forecast to diminish below gale-force by Mon morning,
however, fresh to locally strong winds will continue in the
south-central Caribbean through at least Thu. Please, read the
latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N18W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from
03N24W to 01S30W to 00N39W. Numerous moderate convection is within
180 nm off the coast of Liberia. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06S to 06N between 20W and 32W, and from 03S to 06N between
36W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure anchored by a 1023 mb high just N of Tampa Bay,
Florida and its associated ridge dominate the Gulf, providing
moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate
seas basin-wide, except for NE fresh winds off the western Yucatan
Peninsula into the E Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, strong winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan
peninsula during the next several evenings. Otherwise, moderate to
fresh winds with slight to moderate seas can be expected through
Fri next week. Winds will become fresh to strong over the western
Gulf on Mon night into Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
gale warning off the coast of Colombia.

Strong high pressure and associated ridging extending to the
northern Caribbean continue to support moderate to fresh NE to E
winds basin-wide, except for fresh to strong NE winds over the
south-central waters and in the Windward Passage. Seas are 5-7 ft
across the region, except for rough 8-10 ft seas over the offshore
waters of Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail off the
coast of Colombia, pulsing to gale-force tonight with seas to 11
ft. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse in the Windward
Passage, S of the Dominican Republic, and in the Lee of Cuba for
the next few days. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and
moderate seas can be expected across much of the basin through the
middle of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W SW to eastern Cuba. Moderate NE
winds follow the front and cover the offshore waters E of the
Bahamas, increasing to fresh speeds in the Great Bahama Bank and
the Caribbean approaches. N of the Bahamas winds are light to
gentle under the influence of a high pressure just SW of Bermuda.
Over the E subtropical Atlantic, a broad low pressure centered
just N of 30N continue to generate fresh to strong W to NW winds N
of 25N between 31W and 41W and moderate to fresh S to SW winds E
of the low. Long period NE swell associated with this system also
continue to support rough to very rough seas in the 8 to 15 ft
range, highest N of 24N between 32W and 44W. However, rough seas
of 8-10 ft spread SW and reach the SE offshore waters or Puerto
Rico and the Leeward Islands adjacent waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will stall and
gradually dissipate through Mon. Large N-NE swell across the SE
waters will linger through early this week. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front early in the week with more
tranquil marine conditions expected.

$$
Ramos
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