[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Apr 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

Expect for tonight in the coastal waters of Colombia: near gale-
force to gale-force NE winds, and rough seas, from 11N to 12N
between 74W and 75W. Expect also: elsewhere from 10N to 13N
between 73W and 77W strong to near gale-force NE winds, and rough
seas; from 11N to 13N between 70W and 72W including in the Gulf
of Venezuela fresh to strong NE to E winds, and moderate seas; and
in the remainder of the area that is from 10N to 12N between 76W
and 79W moderate to fresh winds, and rough seas in NE swell.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W, to 04N20W and 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from
03N25W, crossing the Equator along 27W, to the Equator along 35W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 07N southward between 20W and 54W. Numerous strong is from
04N to 07N between 06W and 10W in the coastal plains of Liberia
and the Ivory Coast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure center is in central Florida near 28N82W.
Broad surface moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Gulf of Mexico. Slight to moderate seas are from 90W westward.
Moderate seas are in the Straits of Florida. Slight seas are
elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure dominates the Gulf basin. Strong winds will pulse
off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evening the next
several days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds with slight to
moderate seas can be expected through early next week. Winds will
become fresh to strong over the western Gulf on Mon night into
Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for tonight off the coast of Colombia.

A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is from the coast of Venezuela
to 18N between 63W and 65W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
within 240 nm on either side of the surface trough.

Moderate to rough seas are from the line 13N at the coast of
Nicaragua-14N74W-12N72W southward. Moderate seas are in the rest
of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 15N
southward between 70W and 80W. Moderate to fresh cyclonic wind
flow is from 70W eastward. Mostly fresh to some moderate NE winds
are from 80W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 14/1200 UTC, are: 0.43 in Guadeloupe; and 0.09 in San Juan in
Puerto Rico. This information is from the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail off the coast of Colombia,
pulsing to gale-force tonight with seas to 12 ft. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse in the Windward Passage, S of the Dominican
Republic, and in the Lee of Cuba for the next few days. Otherwise,
moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas can be expected
across much of the basin through early next week. Fresh to
occasionally strong winds may develop in the Gulf of Honduras mid-
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N60W, to 27N65W, to 24N70W, to Cuba
near 21N76W. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are within 120 nm
to the north of the cold front, and from 25N southward from 75W
westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the
waters that are from the cold front northwestward. Moderate seas
are from the cold front northwestward. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 90 nm on either side of the
cold front. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 14/1200 UTC, are: 0.76 in Bermuda. This information
is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation
Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A shear line curves through 31N28W 20N30W 19N40W 17N50W 16N60W.
Rough seas are from the shear line northward between 37W and 44W.
Moderate to rough seas are from 09N northward between 44W and
60W, and from 24N northward between the shear line and 37W. Moderate
seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A 1010 mb low
pressure center is near 33N32W. Near gale-force or faster
northerly winds are from 30N northward between the low pressure
center and 40W. Strong northerly winds are elsewhere from 27N
northward between 37W and 43W. Fresh to strong anticyclonic wind
flow is in the remainder of the area that is from the shear line
northward between 36W and 60W. Fresh NE winds are from 20N28W to
the shear line and southward between 28W and 60W. Fresh to
moderate NE winds are from 20N southward between 25W and 40W.
Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate, are from the shear line northward.

A cold front extends from 31N60W to eastern Cuba. The front will
stall and gradually dissipate through Mon. Rough seas accompanying
the front will subside today. Large N-NE swell across the SE
waters will linger through Mon. Otherwise, high pressure will
build in the wake of the front through early next week with more
tranquil marine conditions expected.

$$
mt/al
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