[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110509
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Apr 11  2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0509 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from SE
Louisiana to the Bay of Campeche. The front will reach from
Apalachicola, Florida to Merida, Mexico by Thu morning, then
move SE of the area by early Fri morning. Strong to near gale
force winds with frequent gusts to gale force are expected over
the north-central to northeastern Gulf through Thu ahead of the
front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front with
improving conditions through the upcoming weekend.

West Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong southerly winds will
develop offshore of Florida and N of the Bahamas this evening
and increase to strong to near gale-force late tonight through
Thu, ahead of an approaching cold front. The front is expected
to cross the Florida Peninsula Thu and Thu evening. Gales are
expected Thu and Thu night N of 29N and E of the front, and
briefly N of 30N W of the front Thu night. The front will reach
from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning, and from near Bermuda
to the central Bahamas Sat morning. The front will then stall
and dissipate through the remainder of the upcoming weekend.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters Atlantic Ocean near Guinea and
continues SW to near 05N16W. The ITCZ extends from 05N16W to
02S29W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04S to 03N between 12W and 26W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf waters.

A cold front is currently moving across the Gulf waters, and
extends SE Louisiana to the Bay of Campeche. A warm front is
inducing strong to severe tstms over the north- central Gulf and
the western Florida Panhandle. Another area or scattered
moderate convection is depicted north of the Yucatan Peninsula
is association to a surface trough over the area. Outside of
convection, fresh to strong SE to S winds are ahead of the
front. Seas are of 8 to 11 ft with these winds N of 25N. Fresh
to strong NW winds also follow the front with seas of 8 to 10 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from SE Louisiana to the
Bay of Campeche. Strong winds will prevail on both sides of the
front through Thu. The front will reach from Apalachicola,
Florida to Merida, Mexico by Thu morning, then move SE of the
area by early Fri morning. Strong to near gale force winds with
frequent gusts to gale force are expected over the north-central
to northeastern Gulf through Thu ahead of the front. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front with improving
conditions through the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1026 mb high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic
near 29N60W. The pressure gradient between the area of high
pressure and the Colombian Low is supporting near-gale force
winds off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela and fresh to
strong winds over the remainder of the central Caribbean,
including the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong SE winds are over
the western Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel ahead of
the cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico waters, with the
exception of near-gale force winds over the eastern Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere across the
Caribbean. Seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range in the south central
Caribbean and 6 to 8 ft over the remainder of the central
Caribbean waters. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are also in the western
Caribbean. Seas in the 4 to 7 ft range are found in the eastern
Caribbean. A trough of low pressure is over the NE Caribbean,
crossing the Leeward Islands, generating some low level clouds
and possible showers.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the
south central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force at night off
of Colombia the next several nights. Gale force winds are
possible offshore Colombia at night Fri night through Sun night.
Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Windward Passage,
south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu
before diminishing. A cold front is expected to reach the
Yucatan Channel Thu night, then stall and weaken over the NW
Caribbean late Fri into Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings in
effect for the West Atlantic.

A stationary front enters the forecast area near 31N35W and
continues SW to the Leeward Islands as a stationary dissipating
front. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are behind the
stationary front with seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW to N swell. High
pressure of 1025 mb follows the front and it is centered over
the western Atlantic near 29N60W. Light to gentle winds are in
the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
across the southern periphery of the high center with seas of 8
to 10 ft E of the SE Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are noted
off Africa N of 25N and E of 19W where seas are 8 to 10 ft.
Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere with seas
of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high over the
western Atlantic will shift E through the end of the week. The
associated ridge will support fresh to strong winds across the
Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches through Thu.
Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop offshore of Florida
and N of the Bahamas this evening and increase to strong to near
gale-force late tonight through Thu, ahead of an approaching
cold front. The front is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula
Thu and Thu evening. Gales are expected Thu and Thu night N of
29N and E of the front, and briefly N of 30N W of the front Thu
night. The front will reach from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas Fri
morning, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat
morning. The front will then stall and dissipate through the
remainder of the upcoming weekend.

$$
KRV
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