[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Apr 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from Lake
Charles, Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico. The front will reach
from Apalachicola, Florida to Merida, Mexico by Thu morning,
then move SE of the area by early Fri morning. Frequent gusts to
gale force are possible over the north-central and NE Gulf through
Thu ahead of the front in the thunderstorm activity and behind
the front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front with
improving conditions through the upcoming weekend.

West Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong southerly winds will
develop offshore of Florida and N of the Bahamas this evening
and increase to strong to near gale-force late tonight through
Thu, ahead of an approaching cold front. The front is expected to
cross the Florida Peninsula Thu and Thu evening. Gales are
expected Thu and Thu night N of 29N and E of the front, and
briefly N of 30N W of the front Thu night. The front will reach
from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning, and from near Bermuda
to the central Bahamas Sat morning, then stall and dissipate
through the remainder of the upcoming weekend.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters Atlantic Ocean near Sierra Leone/Guinea
border and continues SW to near 00N22W. The ITCZ extends along
the Equator between 22W and 47W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 00N to 03N between 20W and 36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf waters.

A cold front is currently moving across the Gulf waters, and
extends from Lake Charles, Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico. A
pre- frontal trough is inducing strong to severe tstms over the
north- central Gulf and the western Florida Panhandle. Satellite
derived wind data depicted fresh to strong SE to S winds ahead
of the front. Seas are of 8 to 10 ft with these winds N of 25N
according to an altimeter pass. Fresh to strong NW winds also
follow the front with seas of 8 to 10 ft.

For the forecast, strong winds will prevail on both sides of the
front through Thu. The front will reach from Apalachicola,
Florida to Merida, Mexico by Thu morning, then move SE of the
area by early Fri morning. For more information, please see the
Special Features section.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic
near 30N66W. The pressure gradient between the area of high
pressure and the Colombian Low is supporting near-gale force
winds off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela and fresh to
strong winds over the remainder of the central Caribbean,
including the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong SE winds are over
the western Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel ahead of the
cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico waters. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas are
in the 8 to 12 ft range in the south central Caribbean and 6 to 8
ft over the remainder of the central Caribbean waters. Seas of
6 to 8 ft are also in the western Caribbean. Seas in the 4 to 7
ft range are found in the eastern Caribbean. A dissipating
frontal boundary remains over the NE Caribbean, crossing the
Leeward Islands, generating some low level clouds and possible
showers.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the
south central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force at night off
of Colombia the next several nights. Gale force winds are
possible offshore Colombia at night Fri night through Sun night.
Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Windward Passage, south
of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu before
diminishing. A cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan
Channel Thu night, then stall and weaken over the NW Caribbean
late Fri into Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings in
effect for the West Atlantic.

A stationary front enters the forecast area near 31N35W and
continues SW to the Leeward Islands. Gentle to moderate W to NW
winds are behind the front with seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW to N
swell. High pressure of 1024 mb follows the front and it is
centered over the western Atlantic near 30N66W. Light to gentle
winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh
winds prevail across the southern periphery of the high center
with seas of 8 to 9 ft just E of the SE Bahamas based on an
altimeter pass. Fresh to strong winds are noted off Africa N of
20N and E of 22W where seas are 9 to 12 ft, except in the lee of
the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail
elsewhere with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure in the western
Atlantic will shift E through the end of the week. The associated
ridge will support fresh to strong winds across the Great Bahama
Bank and the Caribbean approaches through Thu. Fresh to strong
southerly winds will develop offshore of Florida and N of the
Bahamas this evening and increase to strong to near gale-force
late tonight through Thu, ahead of an approaching cold front. The
front is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula Thu and Thu
evening. Gales are expected Thu and Thu night N of 29N and E of
the front, and briefly N of 30N W of the front Thu night. The
front will reach from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning, and
from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat morning. The front
will then stall and dissipate through the remainder of the
upcoming weekend.

$$
GR
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