[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100900
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Apr 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front will move into the western Gulf this morning. The
front will reach from the Florida panhandle to the NW coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning, then move SE of the area Fri
morning. Expect strong to near gale winds in the vicinity of the
front as it moves across the basin. Frequent gusts to gale- force
are expected within 60 nm of the coast starting later this morning
off Louisiana and Mississippi, then spreading eastward to south
of Alabama and the far western panhandle this afternoon, and in
the coastal waters of the remainder of the Florida panhandle this
evening. The gale force wind gusts will gradually decrease from
west to east Thu morning into the afternoon. Please, read the
latest High Seas Forecast, at nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for details.

...W ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

Gale force SE to S winds are expected ahead of a cold front
across the W Atlantic waters N of 30N W of 78W on Thu afternoon.
As the front continues moving E, gale-force winds will prevail in
the vicinity of the front and N of 30N through Fri morning. W
winds will briefly reach gale force N of 30N and W of the front
Thu night. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the
strongest winds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONES...

The current METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast consists of gale-
force winds in the marine zone AGADIR until 10/0600 UTC. Gale-
force winds are in the marine zone CANARIAS until 10/1200 UTC.
Rough seas are from 26N northward from 20W eastward.

For more details refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 11N15W to 01N22W.
The ITCZ continues from 01N22W to 01N42W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 04S to 04N between 20W
and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the northern Gulf waters.

The ridge across the Gulf coast states has started to retreat
eastward as a cold front approaches the Texas coast. Fresh to
strong winds cover much of the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are in the
8-10 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 6-8 ft over the remainder of
the waters N of 22N and W of 88W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-6
ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds prevail ahead of
a cold front that will move into the western Gulf this morning.
The front will reach from the Florida panhandle to the NW coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning, then move SE of the area
Fri morning. Winds may briefly be near gale force offshore
Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon behind the front. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front with improving conditions
through the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1024 mb high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic
near 30N67W. The pressure gradient between the area of high
pressure and the Colombian Low is supporting near-gale force winds
off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela and fresh to strong
winds over the remainder of the central Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage. A surface trough is over the far eastern Yucatan
peninsula across Belize. The pressure gradient between the area
of high pressure and this trough is supporting fresh to strong
winds across the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are
noted elsewhere across the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 8-12
ft range in the south central Caribbean and 6-8 ft over the
remainder of the central Caribbean waters. Seas of 8-10 ft are in
the area of strong winds on the Gulf of Honduras, and 4-6 ft
across the remainder of the western portion of the basin. Seas in
the 2-4 ft range are found in the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the
south central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force at night off
of Colombia the next several nights. Fresh to strong winds are
expected in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the
Gulf of Honduras through Thu before diminishing. A cold front is
expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night, then stall and
weaken over the NW Caribbean late Fri into Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings in
effect for the far E Atlantic and far W portion.

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N35W to the Lesser
Antilles. High pressure of 1024 mb is centered over the western
Atlantic near 30N67W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of
the high center. South of the high center, moderate to fresh winds
prevail. Fresh to strong winds are noted off Africa N of 20N and E
of 22W. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas
are in the 8-12 ft range N of a line from 20N66W to 30N35W. Seas
of 8-12 ft are also off Africa N of 16N and E of 27W. Elsewhere,
seas of 4-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, large NW swell across the NE waters
will shift E of the area today. High pressure in the western
Atlantic will shift E through the end of the week. The associated
ridge will support fresh to strong winds across the Great Bahama
Bank and the Caribbean approaches through Thu. Fresh southerly
winds will develop offshore of Florida and N of the Bahamas this
evening and increase to strong to near gale- force late tonight
through Thu, ahead of an approaching cold front. The front is
expected to cross the Florida Peninsula Thu night. Gales are
expected Thu and Thu night N of 30N and E of the front, and
briefly N of 30N W of the front Thu night. The front will reach
from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning, and from near Bermuda
to the central Bahamas Sat morning. The front will then stall and
dissipate through the remainder of the upcoming weekend.

$$
AL
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