[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100436
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Apr 10  2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0436 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The next cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf
early Wed morning. Expect strong to near gale winds in he
vicinity of the front as it moves across the basin. Frequent
gusts to gale-force are expected to start from the Wed morning
until Thursday morning, from 28N to 30N between 83W and 91W. The
front will reach from the Florida panhandle to the NW coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning, then move SE of the area
Fri morning. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONES...

The current METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast consists of gale-
force winds in the marine zone AGADIR until 10/0600 UTC. Gale-
force winds are in the marine zone CANARIAS until 10/1200 UTC.
Rough seas are from 26N northward from 20W eastward.

For more details refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...W ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

Gale force SE winds are expected ahead of a cold front across
the W Atlantic waters N of 30N W of 78W on Thu afternoon. As the
front continues moving E, gale-force winds will prevail in the
vicinity of the front and N of 30N through Fri morning. Rough to
very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Please,
read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 10N14W to 03N19W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N42W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the vicinity of the ITCZ between 19W-47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the northern Gulf waters.

A ridge extends from high pressure in the western Atlantic
across the Gulf coast states. The pressure gradient between the
area of high pressure and 998 mb low pressure over SW Texas is
supporting fresh to strong winds across the Gulf waters W of
87W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted E of 87W, except in the
Bay of Campeche where winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are in
the 8-11 ft range W of 88W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere, except over
the E Gulf E of 83W where 2-4 ft seas are noted.

For the forecast, the aforementioned  high over the western
Atlantic will shift further into the Atlantic through mid week.
Fresh to strong SE to S winds will dominate ahead of an
approaching cold front. The next cold front is expected to move
into the western Gulf early Wed morning. The front will reach
from the Florida panhandle to the NW coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula by Thu morning, then move SE of the area Fri morning.
Winds may be near gale force offshore Veracruz, Mexico Wed
afternoon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front
with improving conditions through the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1025 high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic near
30N68W. The tail end of a cold front extends across the NE
Caribbean from 16N62W to 17N71W, then it becomes stationary to N
of Jamaica. The pressure gradient between the area of high
pressure and the Colombian Low is supporting near-gale force
winds off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela and fresh to
strong winds over the central Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage. The pressure gradient also supports fresh to strong
winds across the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are
noted elsewhere across the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 8-
10 ft range in the south central Caribbean, 6-8 ft over the
remainder of the central Caribbean waters, and 4-6 ft across the
western portion of the basin, except for the Gulf of Honduras
where seas are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, seas are in the 2-4 ft range.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
across the western Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia will
support fresh to strong winds across most of the central
Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force at night off of Colombia
through the next several nights. The area of high pressure will
also support fresh to strong winds in the Windward Passage,
south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds will
start to diminish the end of the week as the high pressure
shifts eastward and well NE of the region. Looking ahead, a cold
front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night, then
stall and weaken over the NW Caribbean late Fri into Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings in
effect for the far E Atlantic and far W portion.

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N36W to 16N62W.
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are noted E of the front, N of
27N between 32W and 36W. Rough to very rough seas prevail near
the front between 36W-66W. The larger seas are NW of the front.
Outside of the gales off Africa, fresh to strong winds are noted
from 15N to 31N and E of 27W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds generally prevail. Outside of the large seas in the
vicinity of the gales off Africa and near the front described
above, seas of 5-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, large NW swell will across the NE
waters will shift E of the area Wed. High pressure in the
western Atlantic will drift to near Bermuda by Wed night, then
shift E Thu and Fri. The associated ridge will support moderate
to fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean
approaches through tonight, becoming fresh to strong Wed through
Thu. Fresh southerly winds will develop offshore of Florida and
N of the Bahamas on Wed evening and increase to strong to near
gale- force Wed night through Thu, ahead of an approaching cold
front. The front is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula Thu
night, with gales possible Thu and Thu night N of 30N and E of
the front. The front will reach from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas
Fri morning, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat
morning. The front will then stall and dissipate through the
remainder of the upcoming weekend.

$$
KRV
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