[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052126
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 12N16W 05N20W to 02S30W, then transitions to the ITCZ and
extends to 03S38W. No significant convection is evident north of
the Equator.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the mouth of the Mississippi River to
near Clearwater, Florida. 1018 mb high pressure is centered near
27N93W. Mostly light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are
evident across the basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure is centered over the Gulf
near 26N92W this afternoon, behind a cold front that has become
stationary across the NW Caribbean. The high pressure will shift
northeastward and inland through the weekend. This will support
mostly fresh E to SE winds over the western and central Gulf
through Sat night before diminishing Sun. Fresh to strong SE winds
will then develop over most of Gulf Mon and Mon night, and
continue through early Wed, ahead of an approaching cold front.
Expect the next cold front to move into the western Gulf on Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to central Honduras.
Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft are evident across the
Caribbean south of 15N, with strong winds and 7 ft seas off the
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5
ft seas are noted elsewhere. No significant convection is evident.

The stationary front is expected to gradually dissipate this
weekend. High pressure behind the front will move from the NE Gulf
of Mexico on Sat to the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. by Mon
morning. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the coast of
Colombia and NW Venezuela at night through Sun night, then will
expand in areal coverage across most of the central Caribbean Mon
through Wed, as high pressure builds N of the area. Wind will
reach near gale-force at night off of Colombia Mon night through
Wed night. Expect strong NE winds to develop in the Windward
Passage and south of Hispaniola Mon through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N61W to central Cuba, and a second,
reinforcing front extends from 31N75W to near Cape Canaveral.
Fresh to strong SW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted within 90
nm east of the eastern Front. Fresh W winds follow the western
front. Farther east, a 1018 mb high pressure area is centered
near 25N50W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are
noted south of the high pressure over the tropical Atlantic. In
the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from Madeira Island to
25N35W to 25N40W. Fresh NW winds 8 to 14 ft combined seas in NW
swell follow this front. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern front will reach from
near 31N59W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba Sat morning,
then weaken as it moves across the E and SE forecast waters Sun
through Mon. Strong winds and rough seas on either side of the
front N of 28N will gradually diminish by Sat. The westernmost,
reinforcing cold front will quickly move across the area from late
tonight through Sun, followed by fresh to strong W to NW winds N
of 27N. High pressure will move off the coast of South Carolina
early next week, with the associated ridge expected to support
moderate to fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the
Caribbean approaches through Tue night, becoming fresh to strong
Wed.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net