[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Apr 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of SW
Senegal, to 04N20W, crossing the Equator along 25W, to 01S28W.
The ITCZ continues from 01S28W, to 03S39W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the south of
06N53W 04N40W 04N30W 07N16W 07N11W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has entered the northernmost sections of the Gulf of
Mexico, along 29N/31N between 80W and East Texas. No significant
deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite
imagery.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 25N92W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, away
from the cold front. Moderate anticyclonic winds cover much of the
area. Some exceptions are for moderate to fresh NE winds off the W
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and the NE part of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and within 60 nm to the south of
the cold front between 86W and 90W. Slight to moderate seas cover
the area to the east of the line that runs from the Tampa Florida
coastal waters, to the south central Gulf, to the coastal waters
of the W Yucatan Peninsula. Slight seas are in the remainder of
the Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pressure is centered over the western Gulf near 25N92W
this morning, behind a cold front that has become stationary
across the NW Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh winds across
southern portions of the basin will decrease today as high
pressure builds across the area. The high pressure will shift
northeastward and inland through the weekend. This will support
mostly fresh E to SE winds over the western and central Gulf
through Sat night before diminishing Sun. Fresh to strong SE winds
will then develop over most of Gulf Mon and Mon night, and
continue through Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through Cuba near 22N80W, to 18N85W in
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to central Honduras, and
curving into the SE Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds, and moderate seas, are to the
northwest of the stationary front. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible to the northwest of the line that runs from eastern
Honduras to the Windward Passage.

Fresh easterly winds, and moderate seas from 6 feet to 7 feet,
are within 300 nm of Venezuela and Colombia. Broad moderate winds
are elsewhere from Nicaragua eastward. Moderate seas are elsewhere
from 80W eastward. Slight seas are elsewhere.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 05/1200 UTC, are: 0.08 in Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Trinidad and
in San Juan in Puerto Rico. This information is from the Pan
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the SW
corner of the area, from 14N southward from 75W westward. A
surface trough, that originates in the Pacific Ocean, to the east
of the ITCZ, is along 07N80W 10N76W.

A frontal boundary has become stationary from Central Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras along 86W. The front is expected to meander and
gradually dissipate this weekend. High pressure behind the front
will move from the NE Gulf of Mexico on Sat to the middle Atlantic
coast of the U.S. by Mon. Moderate to fresh NE winds are west of
the front, affecting mainly the waters from the Yucatan Channel to
Belize adjacent waters, and will slowly diminish this afternoon
and tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the coast of
Colombia at night through Sun night. These fresh to strong winds
will expand in areal coverage, reaching near gale- force speeds
Mon night as high pressure builds N of the area. Expect strong NE
winds to develop in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola
Mon through Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N63W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
27N70W 25N74W. The front becomes stationary at 25N74W, beyond
22N80W in Cuba, and into the NW Caribbean Sea. Mostly fresh
westerly winds are from 29N northward from 72W westward. Fresh to
strong southerly winds are within 240 nm to the southeast of the
cold front. Rough seas are from 28N northward from 60W westward.
Moderate seas are elsewhere from 60W westward. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 60 nm on either side
of the frontal boundary.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N22W, to
27N30W and 26N40W. A separate surface trough is along 30N21W
24N30W 20N37W 16N44W. Fresh to strong cyclonic wind flow is from
25N northward between 20W and 45W. Rough to very rough seas are
to the north of 27N40W 26N29W 24N20W. Moderate to rough seas are from
05N to 14N between 30W and 60W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 26N northward from 30W
eastward.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 26N52W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is between the eastern Atlantic Ocean cold
front, and the cold front/stationary front boundary.

Mostly fresh NE winds are from 22N southward between 34W and 60W.
Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 05/1200 UTC, are: 0.17 in Bermuda, and 0.05 in Freeport in the
Bahamas. This information is from the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A cold front extending from 31N64W to Central Cuba along 79W will
reach from near 31N58W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba
Sat morning, then weaken as it moves across the E and SE forecast
waters Sun through Mon. Strong winds and rough seas on either side
of the front N of 28N will gradually diminish by Sat. A
reinforcing cold front will quickly move across the area from late
Fri night through the upcoming weekend, followed by fresh to
strong W to NW winds N of 27N. High pressure will move off the
coast of South Carolina early next week, with the associated ridge
expected to support moderate to fresh winds across the Great
Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches through Tue night.

$$
mt/ss
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