[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Apr 05 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean near 14N17W
and extends southwest to 00N25W. The ITCZ begins near 00N25W and
extends southwest to 05N36W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01S to 05N between 10W and 22W. Isolated moderate
convection is noted within 180 nm of the trough axis west of
22W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is building eastward across the area. A 1018 mb
high center is analyzed over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. The
gradient from the high pressure and lower pressure over the SW
Atlantic allows for moderate to fresh N to NW winds in the NE
Gulf, where combined seas are 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh winds will decrease
tonight through Fri as high pressure builds across the area. The
high pressure will shift eastward through the end of the week,
allowing for mostly fresh E to SE winds to develop over the
western and central Gulf through Sat night, then diminish Sun.
Fresh to strong SE winds will then develop over most of the Gulf
Mon and Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from western Cuba southwestward to
Honduras. The western periphery of central Atlantic high
pressure extends west-southwestward to the northern Leeward
Islands. The latest ASCAT satellite data passes indicate
moderate to fresh winds in the NW Caribbean north of the front,
where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Fresh winds are also noted in the
south-central Caribbean, north of Colombia and Venezuela, where
seas are 5 to 6 ft. moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the previously mentioned front is expected to
reach from central Cuba southwestward to the Gulf of Honduras Fri
morning, then stall and weaken from near the Windward Passage to
the Mexican coast along 19N on Sat. High pressure behind the front
will move from the NE Gulf of Mexico on Sat to the middle
Atlantic coast of the U.S. by Mon. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds will follow the front, affecting mainly the waters from the
Yucatan Channel to Belize adjacent waters through Fri morning.
Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia at
night through Sun night. The fresh to strong winds will expand in
areal coverage, reaching near gale-force speeds Mon night as high
pressure builds N of the area. Expect strong NE winds to develop
in the Windward Passage Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A late-season cold front is analyzed from near 31N67W
southwestward to the central Bahamas and to far western Cuba.
The latest ASCAT satellite data passes indicate fresh to strong
SW winds north of 27N and east of the frontal boundary to 60W. A
surface trough west of the cold front stretches from 31N70W to
SE Florida. Fresh to strong W winds are west of the surface
trough. Moderate to rough seas are northwest of the cold front,
north of 29N.

To the east of the cold front, a broad area of high pressure,
anchored by a 1022 mb high near 23N51W, is the main feature
influencing the wind regime in the central and eastern Atlantic
sections. A cold front has entered the area near 31N32W to
30N50W. Fresh to strong winds are ahead of the front, north of
28N and west of 25W. Strong to near gale force winds are behind
the front, east of 40W. These winds support seas of 12 to 14 ft
in the area. 8 to 10 ft seas follow to front, north of 28N and
east of 50W. Elsewhere, the gradient between the high pressure
and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports an area of
fresh NE winds from 05N to 15N between 40W and 55W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the previously described cold front
will reach from 31N64W to central Cuba by Fri morning, from near
31N58W to the Turks and Caicos Sat morning, then weaken as it
moves across the E and SE forecast waters Sun through Mon. Strong
winds and rough seas on either side of the front N of 28N will
gradually diminish by Sat. A reinforcing cold front will quickly
move across the area from late Fri night through the upcoming
weekend, followed by fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 27N. High
pressure will move off the coast of South Carolina early next
week, with the associated ridge expected to support moderate to
fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean
approaches through Wed.

$$
Mora
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