[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Apr 05 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of
Senegal near 14N17W, extending southwestward to 04N19W and
along the Equator to near 29W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates that the ITCZ begins and continues along the Equator
to near 46W. An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is well to the south of the trough from the Equator
to near 05N and between 10W and 18W. Scattered moderate
convection is just south of the trough between 21W and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has recently cleared the Gulf. It extends from far
western Cuba southwestward to Honduras. High pressure is
building eastward across the area. A 1020 mb high center is
analyzed just south of Tampico, Mexico. The gradient from the
high pressure is allowing for gentle to moderate northerly winds
to be over the central and eastern sections of the Gulf, except
for light variable winds in the SW Gulf and for gentle west winds
in the NW Gulf. Latest altimeter satellite data passes and
recent buoy observations indicate mostly moderate seas across the
basin, except for slight seas offshore southwestern Louisiana to
the middle and upper Texas coast.

Satellite imagery shows broken to overcast mostly low and mid-
level clouds near the cold front. Isolated showers and rain
patches are possible with these clouds.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue to
pull farther away from the area through Fri. Winds and seas will
decrease tonight through Fri as high pressure continues to
build across the region. The high pressure will shift eastward
through the end of the week, allowing for mostly fresh east to
southeast winds to develop over the western and central Gulf
through Sat night, then diminish Sun. Fresh to strong southeast
winds are forecast to develop over most of Gulf Mon and Mon
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The cold front that recently moved through the Gulf of Mexico
is now along a position from far western Cuba southwestward to
Honduras. The western periphery of central Atlantic high
pressure extends west-southwestward to the northern Leeward
Islands. Satellite imagery reveals broken low and mid-level
clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms along and near
the front. Patches of rain and isolated showers are over western
Cuba. Latest ASCAT satellite data passes indicate gentle to
moderate southerly winds to the east and southeast of the front,
reaching to near 80W. Moderate to fresh north winds are west of
the front along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. The latest ASCAT
satellite data passes generally show gentle to moderate trade
winds east of 80W, except for fresh trade winds south of 15N
east of 68W, and light variable winds south of 11N west of 80W.
Moderate seas are the majority of the sea state, except for
slight seas in the southwestern Caribbean and north of 15N west
of 68W, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the previously mentioned front is expected to
reach from central Cuba southwestward to the Gulf of Honduras Fri
morning, then stall and weaken from near the Windward Passage to
the Mexican coast along 19N on Sat. High pressure behind the
front will move from the NE Gulf of Mexico on Sat to the middle
Atlantic coast of the U.S. by Mon. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds will follow in behind the front affecting mainly the waters
from the Yucatan Channel to Belize adjacent waters through Fri
morning. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the coast of
Colombia at night Sun night through Wed night, expanding in areal
coverage and reaching near gale-force speeds Mon night as high
pressure builds N of the area. Expect strong NE winds in the
Windward Passage Mon evening through early Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A late season cold front is analyzed from near 31N69W
southwestward to the central Bahamas and to far western Cuba.
Visible satellite imagery clearly depicts a nearly linear rope
cloud feature that denotes the leading edge of the frontal
boundary. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds, with possible
patches of moderate rain along with embedded scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are within about 100 nm northwest of
the frontal boundary north of 27N. Broken to scattered
multilayer clouds are seen within 120 nm northwest of the
frontal boundary south of 27N. Isolated showers may be possible
with these clouds. Latest ASCAT satellite data passes indicate
strong to near gale-force south to southwest winds north of 27N
and east of the frontal boundary to near 62W. Gale-force
southwest winds are just north of the area between 65W and 69W.
Fresh to strong west winds are west of the front north of 29N,
and moderate to fresh west to northwest winds are west of the
front south of 29N. Moderate to rough seas are northwest of the
cold front. Slight seas are between 70W and the cold front.

To the east of the cold front, a broad area of high pressure,
anchored by a 1020 mb high near 23N51W, is the main feature
influencing the wind regime in the central and eastern Atlantic
sections. A cold front is seen along a position from near 31N39W
to 30N44W, then as a stationary front to 32N54W, where it
transitions to a warm front continuing well to the north of the
area. An ASCAT satellite data pass shows strong to near gale-
force southwest to west winds north of 28N and between 30W and
43W. Seas with these winds are in the 10 to 13 ft range. The
ASCAT satellite data pass also shows moderate to fresh southwest
to west winds from 25N to 28N between 24W and 48W. Moderate or
weaker winds are over the rest of the Atlantic basin. Rough seas
are present north of 26N between 27W and 40W. Moderate to rough
seas are from 17N to 26N between 27W and 40W and also north of
13N east of 27W. Moderate seas are over the remainder of the
Atlantic. The gradient between the high pressure and relatively
lower pressures found in the tropical and sub-tropical zones is
allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to east trade winds to
exist south of about 19N and west of 28W. Moderate to fresh
northeast winds are from 19N to 30N and east of 28W to along the
coast of Africa.

For the forecast W of 55W, the previously described cold front
will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by this evening,
from near 31N62W to the Turks and Caicos Fri evening, then across
the eastern and southeastern forecast waters through Mon. Strong
winds and rough seas on either side of the front N of 28N will
gradually diminish by Sat. A reinforcing cold front will quickly
move across the area from late Fri night through the upcoming
weekend, followed by fresh to strong west to northwest winds
north of 27N. High pressure will move off the coast of South
Carolina early Mon, with the associated ridge expected to support
moderate to fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the
Caribbean approaches through Wed.

$$
Aguirre
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