[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Apr 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

Gale-force S to SW winds are starting, soon, from 30N northward
between 74W and 81W. Expect from now and during the next 18 hours
or so: strong to near gale-force S to SW winds, elsewhere, from
27N northward between 74W and 81W. A strong cold front currently
is in the Gulf of Mexico. It passes through the Florida Big Bend,
into the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast is
for the front to reach the northwesternmost part of the forecast
area in the Atlantic Ocean during the next 12 hours to 18 hours or
so. Expect the gale-force winds to slow down to less than gale-
force on Thursday morning. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate, to isolated strong, is within 60 nm on either
side of 26N86W 29N82W, beyond 31N80W. A surface trough is about 60
nm to the east of the cold front from 29N northward. The northern
half of the cold front is from 90W eastward. The southern part of
the cold front still is between 90W and 97W in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

...Residual winds and seas conditions in the Gulf of Mexico...

Expect strong to near gale-force NW to N winds, and rough seas,
in the Gulf of Mexico from 30N southward between 85W and 97W, and
within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico. Expect strong SW
winds, and moderate seas, from 23N to 30N between 83W and 87W.
Rough seas cover most of the areas that are from 90W westward.
Moderate seas are in the NE quadrant of the Gulf. Slight seas are
in the Florida Keys, and off the NW Yucatan Peninsula. These
conditions are forecast for the next 18 hours or so. A cold front
passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the central Gulf of
Mexico, to 23N92W, to Ciudad del Carmen in coastal Mexico, and
through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, to isolated
strong, is within 60 nm on either side of 26N86W 29N82W, beyond
31N80W. A surface trough is about 60 nm to the east of the cold
front from 29N northward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 24N
northward from 90W eastward.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W, to 04N18W and 01N23W. The ITCZ continues from
01N23W, to the Equator along 32W, to the Equator along 40W.
Precipitation: numerous strong is from the Equator to 04N between
13W and 18W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from
06N southward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
residual winds and waves conditions, and the precipitation, that
are related to the current cold front.

A late season cold front extends from near Apalachicola, Florida
to 25N90W and to inland Mexico near Ciudad del Carmen. The front
will reach from South Florida to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula
this evening and to just southeast of the Gulf early on Thu. Fresh
to strong winds and building seas will follow in behind the west
of the front while fresh to strong southerly winds will precede
it. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front,
with some of the storms possibly becoming severe. Winds and seas
will decrease Thu through Fri as high pressure builds in the wake
of the front. The high pressure will shift eastward through the
end of the week allowing for mostly fresh east to southeast winds
to develop over the western and central Gulf through Sat night,
then diminish Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends from the 24N56W 1020 mb Atlantic Ocean high
pressure center, to the SE Bahamas, to NW Cuba, to the NE Yucatan
Peninsula.

Rough seas are from 16N southward between the Peninsula de la
Guajira of NE Colombia and 80W. Moderate to rough seas are in the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from the Isle of Youth westward.
Moderate seas are in much of the rest of the area. Some exceptions
are for slight seas: in the coastal waters of Venezuela along 70W;
in the SE corner of the area; and in the coastal waters from
Nicaragua to the eastern sections of Honduras. Fresh to strong NE
winds are to the northeast of 18N67W 14N66W 11N64W, and NE to E
between 70W and Jamaica. Strong SE winds were in the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from 80W westward, during the
earlier hours of today. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere.

The gradient between high pressure north of the region and
relatively lower pressure in NW Colombia will allow for strong to
near gale-force northeast winds to pulse off the coast of Colombia
at night through Sun night. Fresh to strong east to southeast
winds in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish to fresh speeds by
early this afternoon. Otherwise, the tail of a cold front will
move into the NW Caribbean Thu morning, and extend from central
Cuba southwestward to northern Belize adjacent waters by Thu
evening. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow in behind
the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
Gale-Force Wind Warning that is starting soon, and the Gulf of
Mexico cold front.

A cold front is passing through 31N45W to 29N52W 29N56W to 31N59W.
Rough seas are from 27N northward between 30W and 60W. Very rough
seas are from 31N northward between 30W and the cold front.
Moderate to rough seas are from 25N to 27N between the 30N26W
24N40W surface trough and 50W.

A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is along 30N26W 24N40W 18N50W
12N60W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate, are within 180 nm on either side of the trough.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 24N56W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the surface
trough westward. A surface ridge extends from the high pressure
center, to the SE Bahamas, to NW Cuba, to the NE Yucatan
Peninsula.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 27N northward from
22W eastward. Moderate to rough seas are from 11N to 24N from 30W
eastward, and from 05N to 12N between 45W and 50W. Moderate seas
are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh SW winds are
from 27N northward between 30W and 70W. Fresh NE winds are from
25N southward between 33W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are in
the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

High pressure over the region will continue to shift eastward
today as a strong cold front approaches from the west. The cold
front will move off the northeast Florida coast this afternoon,
reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and to western Cuba early
Thu, from near 31N67W to central Cuba Thu evening, then across
the eastern part of the area through late Sat. Gale- force
southerly winds are expected ahead of the front mainly north of
about 30N today and tonight. Increasing gusty winds along with
building seas are expected elsewhere ahead and behind the front
north of 26N through Thu evening. Showers and thunderstormsin a
line, some strong to occasionally severe, are expected to precede
the front. Otherwise, a couple of weaker cold fronts will sweep
across the northern waters Fri through Sun night, followed by
fresh to strong west to northwest winds.

$$
mt/ja
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