[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Apr 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends
from Alabama SW to the western Bay of Campeche. Strong to near
gale-force northerly winds are present behind the front, except
for gale-force off the coast of Veracruz where seas have built to
11 ft. N of Veracruz, seas behind the front are in the 8-10 ft
range. Fresht to strong SW winds and moderate seas to 7 ft are
ahead of the front covering most of the E Gulf. The front
will reach from South Florida to the NE Yucatan Peninsula this evening
and to just SE of the Gulf early Thu. Gale-force offshore
northerly winds off Veracruz will diminish this morning. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas are expected elsewhere west of the
front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to
possibly severe, may impact some sections of the area. Winds and
seas will decrease Thu through Fri as high pressure builds in the
wake of the front.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off
the NE Florida coast this afternoon, reach from near 31N72W to
the NW Bahamas and to western Cuba early Thu, from near 31N67W to
central Cuba Thu evening, then across the eastern part of the area
through late Sat. Gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead
of the front north of 30N today and tonight. Seas will be
building to near 12 ft this evening. Increasing winds and
building seas are expected elsewhere ahead and behind the front
north of 26N through Thu evening. Showers and thunderstorms, some
strong to isolated severe, are expected to precede the front.
Conditions will improve Fri into Sat.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic waters through the coast
of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southward to 03N16W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N16W to 02S27W and to 03S39W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed south of 03N and between 08W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the SW Gulf of Mexico.

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from Alabama SW to the
western Bay of Campeche. Gales are currently ongoing over the
Veracruz adjacent waters along with rough seas to 11 ft. Elsewhere
behind the front, winds hold strong to near gale-force speeds and
seas are in the 8-10 ft range. Fresh to strong SW winds cover the
eastern half of the basin with moderate seas to 7 ft. Scattered
showers and tstms are happening over the north-central and NE
Gulf, stronger over the Florida Panhandle and adjacent waters.

For the forecast, the front will reach from South Florida to the
NE Yucatan Peninsula this evening and to just SE of the Gulf early
Thu. Gale-force offshore northerly winds off Veracruz will
diminish this morning. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are
expected elsewhere west of the front. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some strong to possibly severe, may impact some
sections of the area. Winds and seas will decrease Thu through Fri
as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. The high
pressure will shift eastward through the end of the week allowing
for fresh to strong E to SE winds to develop over the western and
central Gulf through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic continues to
exert its influence over the Caribbean Sea. The pressure
gradient between this 1018 mb high pressure system and lower
pressures in the deep tropics results in fresh easterly trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean and fresh to strong SE winds
in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-6 ft cover much
of the remainder of the basin. However, light to gentle winds and
slight seas are found in the Windward Passage and the far SW Caribbean
waters.

For the forecast, winds in the south-central Caribbean will pulse
to strong speeds at night starting tonight and continuing through
Sun night. Fresh to near gale-force E to SE winds in the Gulf of
Honduras will diminish to fresh speeds late this morning.
Otherwise, the tail of a cold front will move into the NW
Caribbean Thu morning and extend from central Cuba SW to the
northern Belize adjacent waters by Thu evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect off NE Florida.

Broad subtropical ridging dominates the subtropical Atlantic,
providing light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas across
the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico and E of the central and
southern Bahamas. Between the ridge and an approaching cold front,
fresh to strong southerly winds have developed off the NE coast of
Florida. Seas over this region are 5 to 7 ft. A broad area of
fresh to strong SW to W winds are also ongoing between the high
pressure center and the tail of a cold front that extends from
30N51W to 30N60W. Seas over this region are 8-13 ft. Farther
east, a dissipating stationary front enters region near 30N20W
and continues southwestward to 27N30W, becoming a surface trough
to 19N47W. Fresh N to NE winds and seas to 8 ft are affecting the
Canary and Cape Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will
shift eastward today as a strong cold front approaches from the
west. The cold front will move off the NE Florida coast this
afternoon, reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and to western
Cuba early Thu, from near 31N67W to central Cuba Thu evening,
then across the eastern part of the area through late Sat. Gale-
force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front north of 30N
today and tonight. Increasing winds and building seas are
expected elsewhere ahead and behind the front north of 26N through
Thu evening. Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to isolated
severe, are expected to precede the front. Otherwise, a couple of
weaker cold fronts will sweep across the northern waters Fri
through Sun night, followed by fresh to strong west to northwest
winds.

$$
Ramos
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