[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Apr 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1705 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:  A cold front will enter the
western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning and extend from the
Florida Panhandle to the SW Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. Gale
force NW winds associated with the front are expected offshore
Veracruz, Mexico beginning Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning. Seas will build 6 to 9 ft in the area of these winds by
Wednesday morning. As the cold front exits the basin, marine
conditions will improve in the SW Gulf Wednesday night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa. The ITCZ
extends from 07N15W to 00N20W to 02S25W. The ITCZ is intercepted
by a trough that extends from 00N30W to 06S27W. Scattered
moderate convection associated with this trough is from 07S to
03N between 25W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure system centered between Bermuda and
Hispaniola extends a ridge to the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in Mexico
supports pulses of fresh to strong southerly winds over much of
the western half of the basin, confirmed in recent buoy
observations. This supports seas of 4 to 6 ft. Over the eastern
Gulf, moderate winds or less and slight seas continue. The
combination of dense fog due to persistent southerly flow and
smoke from agricultural fires is lowering visibility in the SW
Gulf. An observation offshore Tampico, Mexico, reported visibility
down to 2 nm. Hazy skies from the agricultural fire cover a
majority of the western Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong east to southeast winds will
pulse across the western Gulf through Tue. A cold front will
enter the western Gulf on Tue morning. It will extend from the
Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed, and move SE of the
area late Wed night into Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building
seas are expected west of the front. Winds and seas will decrease
Thu through Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The basin is influenced by a 1024 mb high pressure system
centered between Bermuda and Hispaniola. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in
NW South America supports strong to near gale-force easterly
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, as noted in a recent
satellite scatterometer pass. These winds support seas of 7 to
10 ft. Fresh to strong easterly breezes and seas of 4 to 7 ft
are found in the north-central Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage and S of Hispaniola. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
pulsing of fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward
Passage and off the southern coast of Hispaniola through Tue.
Strong trade winds producing seas will pulse off the coast of
Colombia through Tue. Winds will diminish and seas will subside
starting Wed as the high pressure shifts eastward well away from
the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 mb high pressure system centered between Bermuda and
Hispaniola dominates the SW Atlantic. To the east, a cold front
extends from 31N30W to 20N45W. No significant convection is
associated with this boundary. Fresh to strong southerly winds
are evident north of 27N and east of the cold front and 26W.
Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell remain behind the cold front,
north of 20N between 45W and 65W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in
northerly swell are also ahead of the front north of 15N and
mostly east of 30W.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas east of 60W will
subside from west to east through today. A cold front will move
off the coast of Florida on Wed. This front will extend from near
Bermuda to western Cuba Thu, and from near 31N58W to central Cuba
Fri. Increasing winds and building seas will be both ahead and
behind this front, mainly N of 25N.

$$
MORA
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