[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Apr 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W and continues southwestward
to 02N17W. The ITCZ reaches from 02N17W to 04S38W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident south of 03N and between 16W and
36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure system centered between Bermuda and
Hispaniola extends a ridge to the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in Mexico support
pulses of fresh to strong E-SE winds over much of the western
half of the basin. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. In the
remainder of the Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds and 2-5 ft seas
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse across
the western Gulf through Tue. A cold front will enter the western
Gulf on Tue morning. The front will extend from the Florida
panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed, and will move SE of the area
Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected west of
the front. Winds and seas will decrease Thu and Fri as high
pressure builds in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The basin is under the influence of a 1023 mb high pressure
system centered between Bermuda and Hispaniola. The pressure
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in
NW South America result in strong to near gale-force easterly
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters
are 8-10 ft. Fresh to strong easterly breezes and seas of 4-7 ft
are found in the north-central Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage and S of Hispaniola. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
pulsing of fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage
and off the southern coast of Hispaniola through Tue. Strong trade
winds and rough seas will pulse off the coast of Colombia through
the middle of the week. Winds and seas will then decrease by the
second half of the week as the area of high pressure shifts
eastward and further from the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A high pressure is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N68W. To
the east, a cold front extends from 31N33W to 17N47W, the a
surface trough continues to 10N55W. Fresh to strong southerly
winds are evident north of 28N and between the cold front and 29W.
Seas in these waters are 8-9 ft. The rest of the tropical
Atlantic is dominated by an area of high pressure centered near
26N26W. Subsiding swell is producing seas of 8 to 11 ft are north
of 20N and between 44W and 60W. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas E of 60W will subside
from west to east through today. A cold front will move off the
coast of Florida on Wed. This front will extend from near Bermuda
to W Cuba Thu, and from near 31N58W to central Cuba Fri.
Increasing winds and building seas will be both ahead and behind
this front, mainly N of 25N.

$$
ERA
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