[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 102034
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
500 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

Margot has become better organized this afternoon. Visible and
infrared satellite imagery indicate that the low-level center has
tucked up under the deep convection. A recent SSMI/S microwave pass
depicts that there is well-defined curved banding around the center.
Deep convection continues to burst near the center. Subjective and
objective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are T/3.5 and
T/3.0, respectively. Given the improved structure, this advisory
will lean towards the higher end of these estimates and the initial
intensity is raised to 55 kt.

Margot is still within an environment of moderate southwesterly wind
shear. The vertical wind shear is forecast to persist, but
strengthening is forecast over the coming days as the system is
entering a more favorable upper-level divergent wind pattern. Margot
will continue to traverse warm sea surface temperatures throughout
the forecast period, around 28 degrees Celsius.  The NHC forecast is
slightly higher in the short term, with Margot forecast to become a
hurricane on Monday. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA
and IVCN consensus intensity aids.

Margot is moving northward at around 8 kt. A northward motion is
expected to continue into a weakness in the central Atlantic
subtropical ridge. In about 2 to 3 days, Margot's forward motion is
forecast to slow down as the steering flow weakens. Towards the end
of the forecast period, there remains considerably large
cross-track model spread. The NHC track forecast lies between the
consensus aids, with the system meandering over the central
Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 23.9N  40.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 25.1N  40.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 26.8N  40.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 28.7N  40.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 30.8N  40.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  13/0600Z 32.9N  40.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 34.3N  41.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 36.3N  41.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  15/1800Z 37.2N  41.2W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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