[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 101444
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

Shear continues to impact Margot's ability to become better
organized. Visible satellite imagery this morning shows that the
low-level center of the system remains on the southwestern edge of
the deep convection. All the deep convection remains sheared to the
northeast. A 1154 UTC scatterometer pass this morning, depicted a
few wind barbs,that were not rain flagged, near 40 kt. Given the
undersampling of this instrument, the intensity is held at 45 kt
for this advisory. This is in agreement with the latest subjective
Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T3.0 from TAFB.

Margot is currently within an environment of moderate vertical wind
shear, which is inhibiting the organization of the system. Despite
the less than favorable environment, the intensity guidance has
been persistent in Margot gradually strengthening over the next few
days as it enters a more favorable upper-level wind pattern, and
continues over warm sea surface temperatures.  The NHC forecast is
for gradual strengthening and has Margot becoming a hurricane in
about two days. This is in agreement with the corrected consensus
HCCA, and IVCN intensity aids.

Margot is expected continue to move north-northwestward to northward
into a weakness in the central Atlantic subtropical ridge. Beyond
day 3, Margot will begin to slow its forward motion as the steering
pattern weakens. Towards the end of the forecast period, there
remains quite a bit of cross-track model spread, and some models
have the system meandering in the central Atlantic. There is higher
than normal uncertainty in this time range. The NHC track forecast
lies between the HFIP HCCA and simple consensus TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 23.0N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 24.1N  40.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 25.8N  40.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 27.5N  40.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 29.5N  40.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  13/0000Z 31.6N  40.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 33.3N  41.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  14/1200Z 35.6N  41.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  15/1200Z 36.9N  41.7W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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