[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 090845
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

Lee seems to be recovering from the effects of the strong
southwesterly shear.  The central dense overcast has expanded, with
periodic bursts of deep convection and increased lightning activity
near the center.  The most recent geostationary satellite infrared
images even seem to be hinting a return of Lee's eye.  Overnight,
there were multiple reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft of mesovorticies orbiting the closed,
elliptical eyewall.  Due to safety considerations, the aircraft were
unable, at times, to penetrate the eyewall and thus, we have no new
in-situ information about the intensity or minimum central
pressure.  The initial intensity is held at a somewhat uncertain
100 kt and NOAA and Air Force Reserve missions are scheduled to
investigate Lee later this morning.

Confidence in the intensity forecast remains low.  Global models
suggest that Lee could be affected by strong-to-moderate
southwesterly shear for at least the next day, though the European
global model shows strong upper-level winds near the hurricane for
the entire forecast period.  The statistical and consensus intensity
aids predict Lee could briefly weaken in the short-term, before
restrengthening in about 12-24 hours.  Only minor adjustments have
been made to the latest NHC intensity forecast, which generally lies
between the simple and corrected consensus intensity aids.
Regardless of the details, it is likely that Lee will continue to be
a dangerous hurricane through the entire forecast period.

Lee is moving west-northwestward at 295/10 kt.  The hurricane is
situated to the south of a mid-level ridge that is predicted to
build westward and southwestward during the next few days.  This
steering pattern is expected to keep Lee on a west-northwestward
trajectory with a slower forward speed.  By next Wednesday, the
hurricane should gradually turn to the northwest and
north-northwest in the flow between a trough over the eastern
United States and the southwestern edge of the ridge.  While the
model guidance is in good agreement about the general synoptic
setup, there remain differences in how far west Lee will move
before it makes the turn.  The latest NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous predictions and lies just to the south of
the various track consensus aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend
and early next week.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting
portions of the northern Leeward Islands.  These conditions
will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the weekend.

3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic.  Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday.  Continue to monitor
updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 19.7N  57.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 20.4N  58.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 21.2N  60.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 21.8N  61.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 22.4N  62.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 22.8N  63.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 23.2N  64.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 23.9N  66.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 25.7N  67.8W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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