[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 090844
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

Margot has become better organized this morning.  The earlier noted
exposed surface center has become obscured with bursts of deep
convection while the outflow pattern has become more diffluent in
the northeast quadrant of the cyclone.  Therefore, the initial
intensity is raised to 40 kt and is based on the TAFB and SAB Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates.

Although some northerly shear and dry mid-level air intruding
from the southwest has slowed the intensification rate, the
intensity guidance indicates that Margot will become a hurricane
next week.  In fact, the upper-level pattern becomes more favorable
by mid-period, although the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance
shows modest southerly shear at the time.  Therefore, the official
forecast indicates gradual intensification through the entire
forecast period.  The NHC intensity forecast favors the reliable
multi-model consensus aids, which is just below the Decay SHIPS
beyond day 3.

Margot is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt around the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical high over the eastern Atlantic.  A
west-northwest to northwest motion is forecast through early
Sunday, followed by a turn toward north-northwest to north by late
Sunday with some reduction in forward speed.  A slight adjustment
to the right of the previous forecast track was made to hedge
closer to the HFIP HCCA corrected consensus aid and TVCA simple
multi-model guidance.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 19.9N  36.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 20.6N  38.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 21.7N  39.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 22.8N  40.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 24.2N  41.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 25.7N  41.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 27.4N  41.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 31.2N  42.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 34.5N  43.4W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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