[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071711
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Sep 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lee is centered near 16.4N 50.0W at 07/1500 UTC or 760
nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater
are within: 180 nm NE, 120 nm SE, 90 nm SW, 120 nm NW of the
center of Lee with peak seas of 27 ft. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is within 150 nm of the center of Lee.
Rapid intensification has begun, and is expected to continue
today and tonight. Lee will likely become a major hurricane later
today, and is forecast to remain a very strong major hurricane
through the weekend. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach
portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and
Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Tropical Depression Fourteen is centered near 15.7N 26.4W at
07/1500 UTC or 140 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at
15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 14N to 19N between 25W and 28W. This
motion toward the WNW is expected to continue during the next
several days. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next
several days, and the depression is forecast become a tropical
storm later today or tonight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest Lee and Fourteen NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

With the formation of T.D. Fourteen, no tropical waves are
analyzed across the Atlantic basin.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues to Sal, Cabo Verde. Another
segment of the monsoon trough begins at 12N27W and continues to
03N38W. No significant convection is noted near the monsoon trough
at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the central Bay of Campeche with
scattered moderate convection south of 21N between 91W and 96W.
Quiescent conditions are elsewhere, due to the presence of 1015 mb
high pressures centered near Lake Okeechobee, Florida and in the
NE Gulf of Mexico. Light and variable winds are everywhere with
1-2 ft seas.

For the forecast, the weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
throughout the forecast period supporting only light to moderate
winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A diffuse pressure gradient provides for gentle to moderate trades
and 3-6 ft seas across the basin. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough is
south of 11N between 77W and 82W.

For the forecast, Hurricane Lee will move to 17.1N 51.7W this
evening, 18.2N 54.0W Fri morning, 19.2N 56.1W Fri evening, 20.1N
58.1W Sat morning, 20.9N 59.8W Sat evening, and 21.5N 61.2W Sun
morning. Lee will change little in intensity as it moves to the
north of Puerto Rico near 22.6N 63.7W early Mon. In the Caribbean,
moderate to fresh trade winds will continue in the central and E
Caribbean into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere. Large swell from Hurricane Lee will begin to impact the
Anegada Passage beginning Sat afternoon and the Mona Passage
beginning Sun morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
Hurricane Lee and Tropical Depression Fourteen.

A surface trough remains nearly stationary from 30N60W to 23N69W.
Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the trough axis. Farther
east, the remnant low of former tropical cyclone Katia is located
near 24N32W with a central pressure of 1014 mb. Light to gentle
winds prevail across the basin, with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Lee will move to 17.1N 51.7W
this evening, 18.2N 54.0W Fri morning, 19.2N 56.1W Fri evening,
20.1N 58.1W Sat morning, 20.9N 59.8W Sat evening, and 21.5N 61.2W
Sun morning. Lee will change little in intensity as it moves to
the north of Puerto Rico near 22.6N 63.7W early Mon.

$$
Mahoney
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