[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Sep 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lee is centered near 16.1N 48.6W at 07/0900 UTC or 840
nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is from 13N-19N between 45W-51W. Rapid
intensification is expected to begin later today, and Lee is
forecast to become a major hurricane by early Friday. Swells
generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the Lesser
Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S. Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office for details.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Lee
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Invest AL96:
A tropical wave has its axis along 24W, south of 20N. A 1005 mb
low pres is along the wave near 14N. Showers and thunderstorm
activity are showing signs of organization at this time.
Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the disturbance moves
toward the west-northwest at about 15 kt. Heavy rains and gusty
winds associated with this system are now occurring over the Cabo
Verde Islands with seas to 8 ft, and these conditions are
expected to continue during the next several hours. This system
has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next
48 hours, and a high chance in 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

See above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues to Invest 96L near 14N24W
and to 16N37W. Aside from the convection discussed in the Special
Features section, no convection is noted at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the eastern Bay of Campeche with
scattered moderate convection S of 20N between 92W-95W. A weak
pressure pattern continues to dominate the basin allowing for
light to gentle winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters most of
the forecast period supporting light to gentle winds and slight
seas, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds just W of the
Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the Windward
Passage, related to a surface trough that extends across the
area.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the central
Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America support
fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured the
strongest winds occurring off NW Colombia. Seas in these waters
are 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are evident in the
north-central and eastern Caribbean, along with seas of 3-6 ft.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas
will continue in the central and eastern Caribbean into the
weekend. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail
elsewhere. Hurricane Lee will move to 16.8N 50.3W this afternoon,
17.8N 52.7W Fri morning, 18.8N 55.0W Fri afternoon, 19.8N 57.1W
Sat morning, 20.6N 59.1W Sat afternoon, and 21.3N 60.7W Sun
morning. Lee will change little in intensity as it moves to 22.5N
63.6W by early Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Hurricane
Lee and on the eastern Atlantic Invest 96L.

A surface trough remains nearly stationary from 30N60W to the
Windward Passage. Along with divergence aloft, scattered showers
are noted within 120 nm of the trough axis, affecting the SE
Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, NW Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. A weak
pressure pattern prevail in the western tropical Atlantic, west
of 55W, allowing for light to gentle winds and slight to moderate
seas.

Farther east, the remnant low of former tropical cyclone Katia is
located near 26N32W with a central pressure of 1013 mb. Latest
satellite-derived wind data indicate that fresh to strong winds
continue in the northern and western quadrants. Seas are 6-8 ft in
the area north of 22N and between 27W and 34W. Moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the
tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Lee will move to 16.8N 50.3W
this afternoon, 17.8N 52.7W Fri morning, 18.8N 55.0W Fri
afternoon, 19.8N 57.1W Sat morning, 20.6N 59.1W Sat afternoon, and
21.3N 60.7W Sun morning. Lee will change little in intensity as
it moves to 22.5N 63.6W by early Mon.

$$
ERA
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