[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Sep 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lee is near 13.5N 43.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is
moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003
mb. Peak seas are up to 13 ft. Numerous moderate to strong
convection, mainly organized in a band in the western quadrant,
is observed from 10N to 19N and between 41W and 46W. The current
motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a slight
reduction in forward speed. Strengthening is expected, and Lee is
forecast to become a hurricane by tomorrow night and a major
hurricane by Friday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Lee NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A strong far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along
19W, south of 19N. A 1009 mb low is along the wave near 11N. The
system is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 17N and east of
27W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring in association with the
strongest convection and also south of the center along the SW
monsoonal flow. Seas are 5-8 ft south of 25N and east of 27W.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
later this week or this weekend while the system moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
This system is expected to move across the Cabo Verde Islands
tonight and Thursday, and interests there should monitor its
progress. The chance of development in the next 48 hours is low.
Please refer to the website: www.hurricanes.gov for the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 84W,
south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues to Invest 96L near 11N18W
and to 13N31W. The monsoon trough continues from 11N45W to
12N56W. Aside from the convection discussed in the Special
Features and Tropical Waves section, no other deep convection is
noted.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is draped across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
supporting a few showers, mainly east of 85W and south of 28N. A
weak pressure gradient prevail across the Gulf waters, sustaining
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure over the SE US will support
moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin through tonight.
Afterward, a weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle
winds and slight seas the remainder of the forecast period, with
the exception of gentle to moderate winds just W of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Diurnal heating and abundant tropical moisture are producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Cuba and
Hispaniola and the nearshore waters of these islands. Except for
pockets of shallow moisture sustaining weak, isolated showers,
a fairly dry weather pattern is prevalent across the rest of the
Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the central
Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America support
fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong
to near gale-force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in these
waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are evident
in the north- central and eastern Caribbean, along with seas of
3-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas
will continue in the central and eastern Caribbean into the
weekend, except for developing fresh to strong winds in the south-
central waters tonight into Wed. Gentle to locally moderate winds
and slight seas will prevail elsewhere. Tropical Storm Lee is near
13.5N 43.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 14 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Lee will move to 14.1N 44.9W
Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.9N 47.2W Wed
evening, 15.7N 49.7W Thu morning, 16.6N 52.2W Thu evening, 17.8N
54.8W Fri morning, and 18.9N 57.1W Fri evening. Lee will change
little in intensity as it moves to near 20.8N 61.5W late Sat. Lee
is forecast to become a hurricane by tomorrow night and a major
hurricane by Friday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Tropical
Storm Lee and the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on Invest 96L.

A surface trough extends from 27N60W to Hispaniola. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are seen on satellite imagery south of
27N and between 60W and 72W. The remainder of the western Atlantic
(west of 55W) is under two weak high pressure systems located off
NE Florida and off the Leeward Islands. Moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail west of 55W.

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Katia is located near
28N34W with a central pressure of 1012 mb. A few showers are
present over the eastern quadrant. Latest satellite-derived wind
data indicate that fresh to strong winds are prevalent in the
northern and western quadrants. Seas are 6-8 ft in the area north
of 25N and between 31W and 38W. These conditions will diminish
Wed morning. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent in the remainder of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Lee is near 13.5N
43.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 14 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Lee will move to 14.1N 44.9W
Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.9N 47.2W Wed
evening, 15.7N 49.7W Thu morning, 16.6N 52.2W Thu evening, 17.8N
54.8W Fri morning, and 18.9N 57.1W Fri evening. Lee will change
little in intensity as it moves to near 20.8N 61.5W late Sat. Lee
is forecast to become a hurricane by tomorrow night and a major
hurricane by Friday.

$$
DELGADO
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