[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060011 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Sep 06 2023

Corrected satellite imagery time

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Lee is centered near 13.2N
41.8W, or about 1140 nm east of the Lesser Antilles at 05/2100
UTC moving west-northwest at 14 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed
is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are up to 12 ft. Latest
GOES-E satellite imagery shows increasing convection of numerous
to strong intensity exhibiting a banding pattern within 90 nm of
the center in the SW quadrant and within 180 nm of the center in
the NW quadrant. Similar type convection is over the center.
Scattered moderate convection is south of Lee within 30 nm of a
line from 11N41W to 11N44W, and within 15 nm of an outside band
that extends from 11N44W to 14N45W. Lee is forecast by the latest
NHC advisory to maintain its current motion for the next few
days with a slight reduction in forward speed. Lee is forecast
to be a hurricane within a couple of days, and will likely
become a major hurricane by Fri.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Lee NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A strong far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along
18W from 03N to 20N. A 1009 mb low is along the wave near 10N18W.
The system is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Increasing numerous
to strong convection is seen within 270 nm southwest of the low
and within 240 nm northwest of the low. Latest satellite imagery
depicts that convection northwest of the low may be organizing
into a banding feature. The environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form later this week or this weekend
while the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to move across the
Cabo Verde Islands Wednesday night and Thursday, and interests
there should monitor its progress. Please refer to the website:
www.hurricanes.gov for the latest Tropical Weather Outlook on
this system.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 83W
south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection has recently developed within 60 nm east
of the wave from 11N to 14N. Similar convection is west of the
wave reaching the central sections of Nicaragua and inland
northern Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal border
of Senegal and Mauritania to the 1009 mb low pressure near
10N18W and to 11N27W to 12N34W. The ITCZ extends from 11N52W
to 11N60W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
south of the trough from 06N to 09N between 27W-30W. Scattered
moderate convection is in the gap between the monsoon trough and
the ITCZ from 08N to 11N between 46W-50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast trough extends from far NW Mexico
southeastward to 22N96W and to coast of southeastern Mexico
near 19N92W. Isolated showers are near the trough between
92W-94W. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure is over the
area generally gentle to moderate east to southeast winds
throughout, with latest ASCAT data passes indicating that
winds are more of then gentle speeds. Seas are of 2-3 ft,
except for slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft north of 27N and
east of 94W.

For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern United
States will support moderate east to southeast winds across most
of the basin through tonight, and gentle to moderate winds
thereafter through mid- week. Afterward, a weak pressure gradient
will result in light to gentle winds and slight seas the
remainder of the forecast period, with the exception of gentle
to moderate winds, mainly at night, just west of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A rather weak pressure pattern resides across the basin. However,
high pressure north of the area in combination with lower
pressures in northern South America supports moderate to fresh
trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean. Seas over
these waters are 3-5 ft, with higher seas of 5-7 ft just north of
the ABC Islands to about 15N. A slighter pronounced difference
in pressures is allowing for strong trade winds to be south of
15N between 64W-78W. Seas with these winds are in the 5-8 ft
range. Light to gentle winds and lower seas of 1-3 ft are
elsewhere.

Patches of low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow
along with possible isolated showers are over some areas of
the eastern and western sections of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate
seas will continue in the central and eastern Caribbean into the
weekend, except for developing fresh to strong winds in the
south-central waters tonight into Wed. Gentle to locally moderate
winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere. Recently upgraded
Tropical Storm Lee is near 13.2N 41.8W at 5 PM EDT moving west-
northwest at 14 kt. Maximum winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
Lee will strengthen to a hurricane near 15N48.5W early Thu
morning, strengthen to a major hurricane near 18N56W Fri
afternoon, and move to near 22N64W Sun afternoon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Lee, and on the tropical wave that is
along 18W with attendant low pressure.

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Katia is located near
28N34W with a pressure of 1012 mb. Earlier noted convection near
the low has shifted east-northeast and diminished to isolated
showers and thunderstorms. Fresh east winds are north of the
low along with seas of 8-9 ft in long-period north swell. These
conditions will diminish Wed morning.

A broad upper-level trough extends from near 31N70W to the
southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba. An area of
scattered to numerous moderate convection exists east
of the trough from 20N to 27N and between 62W-74W.

Over the central Atlantic, a trough is analyzed from 31N49W to
near 23N54W. The earlier scattered moderate convection that
was near the southern part of the trough has weakened to
isolated showers and thunderstorms from 21N to 24N between
45W-51W.

Over the far eastern Atlantic, a weak 1016 mb high pressure
center is just west of the Canary Islands. The pressure gradient
remains rather light over the eastern and central Atlantic,
except near the tropical wave that is along 18W and Tropical
Storm Lee.

For the forecast west of 55W, seas of 7 to 8 ft in N to NE swell
are occurring over much of the area east of the Bahamas. This
swell event will continue to subside through tonight, with seas
lowering to less than 8 ft by late tonight. Tropical Storm Lee
is near 13.2N 41.8W at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Max winds
are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Lee will strengthen to a
hurricane near 15N48.5W early Thu morning, strengthen to a major
hurricane near 18N56W Fri afternoon, and move to near 22N64W Sun
afternoon.

$$
Aguirre
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