[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 040844
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Katia Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122023
900 AM GMT Mon Sep 04 2023

Katia barely qualifies as a tropical cyclone at this time.  The
system is producing a few puffs of deep convection over the
northern portion of its circulation.  Earlier scatterometer data
indicated that the cyclone had weakened to a tropical depression
and the current intensity estimate is kept at 30 kt.  This is in
good agreement with various objective estimates from UW-CIMSS.

The depression is moving northwestward, or at about 310/6 kt.
Katia's northwestward progress will soon be blocked by a high
pressure area ahead of it.  Then, the flow on the southwestern side
of a large cyclone over the eastern Atlantic is likely to cause the
system to make a U-Turn and move slowly southeastward to
south-southeastward in 24 to 72 hours.  The official forecast is a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions and is similar to the previous
NHC track.

Katia should remain in an environment of very dry low- to mid-level
air with moderate vertical shear.  Therefore, the cyclone is likely
to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight, and dissipate in a few
days.  This is also consistent with various global model
predictions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 27.7N  33.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 28.0N  34.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 28.4N  34.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1800Z 28.5N  34.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0600Z 28.2N  33.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/1800Z 27.7N  33.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 26.7N  33.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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