[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 040842
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
500 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2023

A small area of disorganized deep convection has been persisting to
the southeast of the estimated center position.  The intensity
estimate of 45 kt is based on continuity from earlier scatterometer
data and a Dvorak CI-number from TAFB.  However, the low-level
circulation of Gert is becoming increasingly disrupted by the much
larger post-tropical cyclone Idalia.  In fact, Gert may no longer
have a closed circulation, and it is likely that the system will
become absorbed by Idalia, and dissipate, later today.

Gert is moving northward at a faster forward speed of around 21 kt.
The cyclone should gradually turn northwestward with additional
acceleration while it rotates around Idalia, before dissipating.
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 37.6N  51.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 40.6N  53.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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