[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1755 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has entered the
NW Gulf. The front will move SE across the entire basin by Wed
evening. Gale force winds and building seas will follow the front
beginning early this afternoon. Winds may reach storm-force in
gusts mainly over the SW Gulf late Tue through Wed. Rough to very
rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. The forecast
calls for winds of 30 to 40 kt and seas in the 12 to 21 ft range
over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, Tue evening into
Wed morning.

Please, see the latest NHC High Seas forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic trough the coast of Guinea
near 10N15W then continues westward to near 08N26W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N26W to 06N37W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 16W
and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the NW Gulf from the
central Louisiana coast to just N of Tampico, Mexico. Gale force
winds and building seas are expected behind the front. Please,
refer to the Special Features section for more details.

High pressure centered over the SE of the United States extends a
ridge across the remainder of the Gulf waters. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted elsewhere ahead of the front, with seas
generally 4 to 6 ft. An area of showers, with embedded
thunderstorms, is over the SE Gulf associated with weak trough.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE
across the entire basin by Wed evening. Gale force winds and
quickly building seas will follow the front through Wed. Winds may
reach storm- force in gusts mainly over the SW Gulf late Tue
through Wed. High seas to 20 ft are expected across the SW Gulf by
late Tue. Winds and seas will begin the subside from the NW on
Thu as the front stalls across the NW Caribbean and central
Bahamas.

CARIBBEAN SEA

A disturbance over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to move
westward during the next several days, and environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical
depression could form late this week when the system reaches the
central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Currently, this system has
a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over the
eastern Caribbean. Winds in the eastern Carribbean are gentle to
moderate, with seas 3 to 5 ft. A surface trough is analyzed along
66W.

An elongated area of low pressure remains over the central
Caribbean, with a surface trough extending from the eastern Cuba
to a 1010 mb low pressure located near 15.5N76.5W. Light and
variable winds and seas in the 1 to 3 ft range are noted in
association with this system. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are near the Yucatan Channel in association with a trough.

For the forecast, a 1010 mb low pressure is nearly stationary
over the central Caribbean near 15.5N76.5W with a trough
extending northward into the SE Bahamas. Disturbed weather
continues over much of the eastern Caribbean Sea. This system and
associated weather is expected to move slowly westward during the
next several days, and environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development. A tropical depression could form late
this week when the system reaches the W central or southwestern
Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds are expected
across the basin through early Wed. A strong cold front will enter
the NW Caribbean Wed and reach from central Cuba to Belize by
Thu, followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An area of low pressure with associated disorganized showers is
located about 100 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas continues
to produce an area of gale-force winds on its northeast side.
However, the associated showers and thunderstorms remain
disorganized. This system is moving into an area of strong upper-
level winds and dry air, and the chances of it becoming a short-
lived tropical storm are decreasing. The low is expected to move
slowly northwestward today and then turn northward and
northeastward on Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds are forecast to
diminish below gale force this afternoon.

High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge southward
across the waters between 50W and 60W. Another low pressure
system is near 27N48.5W. Fresh to strong winds are mainly on the NW
side of the low center with seas of 8 to 10 ft. A cold front
extends across the western Canary Islands to 27.5N18W, then
transitions to a stationary front to a 1005 mb low pressure
located N of area near 32N33W. Moderate NE winds and seas around 8
ft are seen in the wake of the front. Another trough extends from
30N30W through 28N44W. A few showers are near the trough axis.
Gentle to moderate winds dominate most the Atlantic E of 60W with
seas of 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft across the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, a 1008 mb low pressure center near
25.5N74.5W continues to produce an area of gale-force winds within
150 nm NE of the low. A surface trough extends from the low
southward through the SE Bahamas. The low is expected to move
slowly west- northwestward today, with winds diminishing below
gale-force, and then turn northward and northeastward on Tuesday
and Wednesday and weaken further. A strong cold front is forecast
to move into the NW waters Wed, and reach from Bermuda to the
central Bahamas early Thu.

$$
KRV
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