[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has entered the
NW Gulf. The front will move SE across the entire basin by Wed
evening. Gale force winds and building seas will follow the front
beginning early this afternoon. Winds may reach storm-force in
gusts mainly over the SW Gulf late Tue through Wed. Rough to very
rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. The forecast
calls for winds of 30 to 45 kt and seas in the 12 to 20 ft range
over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, Tue evening into
Wed morning.

Please, see the latest NHC High Seas forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic trough the coast of Guinea
near 10.5N14.5W then continues westward to near 09N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N20W to 06N30W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 20W
and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front has entered the NW Gulf and currently extends
from SW Louisiana to near Brownsville, Texas. Gale force winds
and building seas are expected behind the front. Please, refer to
the Special Features section for more details.

High pressure centered over the SE of the United States extends a
ridge across the remainder of the Gulf waters. Recent scatterometer
data provide observations of fresh to strong easterly winds over
the SE Gulf, mainly E of 84.5W, including the Straits of Florida.
Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere ahead of the front.
Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft based on a couple of altimeter
passes. An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms, is over
the SE Gulf associated with an upper-level low spinning over the
NE Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast: weather conditions across the Gulf will be
associated with the passage of the above mentioned strong cold
front through Wed evening. High pressure is expected in the wake
of the front. Winds and seas will diminish significantly NW
portions late Wed through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA

An area of disturbed weather has formed over the eastern Caribbean
Sea. This system is expected to move westward during the next
several days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development. A tropical depression could form late this
week when the system reaches the central or southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation through 7 days. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted over the eastern Caribbean. A surface
trough is analyzed along 67W/68W.

An elongated area of low pressure remains over the central
Caribbean, with a surface trough extending from Haiti to a 1008
mb low pressure located near 14N75W to Costa Rica. Light and
variable winds and seas in the 1 to 3 ft range are noted in
association with this system. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in
the lee of Cuba based on satellite derived wind data. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are near the Yucatan Channel associated
with an upper-level low spinning over the NE Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast: the elongated area of low pressure will shift
slowly W and into the W central Caribbean through early Wed. This
pattern will produce generally gentle to moderate winds across the
basin. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed followed
by fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Satellite data indicate that the low pressure system located near
25.5N73W or a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of the
central Bahamas continues to produce an area of gale-force winds
on its northeast side. However, the associated showers and
thunderstorms remain disorganized. This system is moving into an
area of strong upper-level winds and dry air, and the chances of
it becoming a short-lived tropical storm appear to be decreasing.
The low is expected to move slowly west-northwestward today and
then turn northward and northeastward on Tuesday and Wednesday
ahead of a cold front entering the forecast region. Winds are
forecast to diminish below gale force this morning.

High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge southward
across the waters between 55W and 65W. Another low pressure
system is near 29N48W. Fresh to strong winds are mainly on the W
side of the low center with seas of 8 to 9 ft. A cold front
extends across the western Canary Islands to 25N25W to a 1002 mb
low pressure located N of area near 33N35W. Moderate to fresh NE
winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are seen in the wake of the front.
A surface trough extends from 16N51W to near French Guiana/Suriname
border. A few showers are near the trough axis. Gentle to moderate
winds dominate most the Atlantic E of 60W with seas of 4 to 6 ft,
except 5 to 7 ft across the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W: a cold front is forecast to move
across the NW waters Wed and reach from Bermuda to the central
Bahamas early Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building
seas will follow the front.

$$
GR
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