[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Tammy is centered near 33.2N 57.0W at 28/2100 UTC
or 400 nm E of Bermuda, moving E at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 19 ft. Tammy is expected to
gradually turn southward and eventually southwestward as a
remnant low early next week. Some weakening is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Tammy is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tammy
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N20W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 07N37W to 07N54W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 17N between
32W and 46W, and from 07N to 15N between 47W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb center of high pressure over the SE United States
extends southwestward to the central Gulf of Mexico. A tight
pressure gradient between the ridge and Tropical Depression 19-E
located over Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters currently
supports fresh to strong winds along the Florida Straits and
portions of the SE Gulf of Mexico. Seas over these regions are in
the 5 to 9 ft range. Elsewhere in the eastern half of the basin,
winds are moderate to fresh from the east with seas of 4 to 6 ft.
In the western half of the gulf, winds are mainly moderate from
the east-southeast, except off the coast of Yucatan where fresh to
locally strong NE winds are noted.

For the forecast, high pressure centered across the middle
Atlantic coastal states will continue to support fresh to locally
strong winds in the southeast and south central Gulf through Sun.
Gentle NE winds are expected by Mon as the pressure gradient
weakens and high pressure settles over the region. A strong cold
front will enter the NW Gulf Mon morning, and move SE across the
entire basin by Wed evening. This front will bring gale force
winds and quickly building seas over the western Gulf beginning
Mon evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong high pressure centered over the middle Atlantic U.S. coast
is combining with elongated low pressure across the Caribbean
along 68W-69W and into the adjacent Atlantic to support fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds in the NW Caribbean. East of 67W,
winds are mainly moderate and from the east-southeast and seas
are 5 to 6 ft. In the central and SW Caribbean, winds are light to
gentle with slight seas.

For the forecast, the trough and associated low will shift W-NW
through early next week, with winds diminishing across the NW
Caribbean on Sun. Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms
occurring along and E of the trough will shift westward with the
trough through Mon. Large N-NE swell across the W Atlantic will
continue to move through the NE Caribbean Passages through Sun. A
strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY.

In the W Atlantic west of 55W, seas are 8-10 ft in N to NE swell.
10-12 ft seas are from 22N to 28N between 71W and 77W near the
Bahamas. Recent scatterometer depicts an area of fresh to locally
strong NE winds from 24N to 27N between 71W and 81W, including
the Bahamas and Florida Straits. These winds and swell are the
combined effects of building high pressure centered over the SE
United States and Tropical Storm Tammy centered north of TAFB
Waters. A surface trough extends from the coast of Puerto Rico
near 18N67W to 30N62W, with 1008 mb low pressure centered along
the trough axis near 20N66W. Scatterometer shows strong to near
gale force E winds from 19N to 21N between 65W and 67W. Fresh E
winds are elsewhere from 18N to 23N between 64W and 67W. The area
of low pressure has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in
the next two days. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook
at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

East of 55W in the central and eastern Atlantic, 1020 mb high
pressures centered near 28N43W and 27N27W guide the weather
conditions across the basin. A surface trough is from 10N45W to
13N44W, with strong E winds within 90 nm of the trough axis. Gentle
to moderate trades pulse to locally fresh speeds from 08N to 15N
near the ITCZ, supporting 8-9 ft seas in this area. Elsewhere,
seas are 5-7 ft in open waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Tammy is expected to
move eastward today then move E-SE tonight, while brushing the far
NE offshore waters, then turn SE and weaken through Tue. High
pressure across the middle Atlantic coastal states is combining
with a low level trough than extends from S of Tammy to 1008 mb
low pressure located just N of Puerto Rico to produce a large area
of fresh to strong winds, with very high seas between Tammy and
the Bahamas. These high seas will slowly subside through Sun
night. The low pressure is expected to move W-NW cross the SE
Bahamas Sun and gradually drift NW through Tue, accompanied by
very active weather. A strong cold front will enter the NW waters
Wed.

$$
Ramos
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