[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Oct 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Tammy is centered near 33.3N 58.7W at 28/1500 UTC
or 310 nm ENE of Bermuda, moving E at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 21 ft. This eastward motion
is expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the
southeast tonight. Early next week, Tammy is forecast to turn
southward and eventually southwestward as a remnant low. Some
weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Tammy is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low early next week. Swells
generated by Tammy will continue to affect Bermuda through today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest Tammy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 08N20W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N20W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 07N to 13N between 53W and 58W,
and from 06N to 13N between 35W and 47W.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends from the coast of
Nicaragua near 11N84W to 1008 mb low pressure near 12N75W to the
coast of Colombia at 12N72W. Scattered moderate convection is
south of 13N and between 73W and 80W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1024 mb high pressure over the SE United States extends
southwestward over the Gulf of Mexico. The tight pressure gradient
currently supports moderate to fresh E winds across the basin,
with locally strong winds in the Florida Straits. Seas are
analyzed at 4-7 ft across the Gulf, in agreement with satellite
altimeter data and surface observations. A surface trough is
analyzed in the south-central Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure centered across the middle
Atlantic coastal states will continue to support fresh to strong
winds in the southeast and south central Gulf through early Sun.
Gentle NE winds are expected by Mon as the pressure gradient
weakens and high pressure settles over the region. A strong cold
front will enter the NW Gulf Mon morning, and move SE across the
entire basin by Wed evening. This front will bring gale force
winds and quickly building seas over the western Gulf beginning
Mon evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from Ponce, Puerto Rico, to near Curacao.
Recent scatterometer data shows moderate SE winds to the east of
the trough axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 17N
between 62W and 66W. Seas are 8-9 ft in the Mona Passage other
Atlantic Passages as a result of NNE Atlantic Swell and winds near
the trough axis in the W Atlantic. In the NW Caribbean, NE winds
are fresh to locally strong. Winds are gentle to moderate
elsewhere. Seas are 4-7 ft across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over the middle
Atlantic U.S. coast is combining with elongated low pressure
across the Caribbean along 67W-68W and into the adjacent Atlantic
to support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the NW
Caribbean. This trough will shift NW through early next week, with
winds diminishing across the NW Caribbean on Sun. Scattered to
numerous strong thunderstorms occurring along and E of the trough
will shift NW with the trough through Mon. Large N-NE swell across
the W Atlantic will continue to move through the NE Caribbean
Passages through Sun. A strong cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean Wed afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY.

In the W Atlantic west of 55W, seas are 8-10 ft in N to NE swell.
10-12 ft seas are from 22N to 28N between 71W and 77W near the
Bahamas. Recent scatterometer depicts an area of fresh to locally
strong NE winds from 24N to 27N between 71W and 81W, including
the Bahamas and Florida Straits. These winds and swell are the
combined effects of building high pressure centered over the SE
United States and Tropical Storm Tammy centered north of TAFB
Waters. A surface trough extends from the coast of Puerto Rico
near 18N67W to 30N62W, with 1008 mb low pressure centered along
the trough axis near 20N66W. Scatterometer shows strong to near
gale force E winds from 19N to 21N between 65W and 67W. Fresh E
winds are elsewhere from 18N to 23N between 64W and 67W. The area
of low pressure has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in
the next two days. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook
at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

East of 55W in the central and eastern Atlantic, 1020 mb high
pressures centered near 28N43W and 27N27W guide the weather
conditions across the basin. A surface trough is from 10N45W to
13N44W, with strong E winds within 90 nm of the trough axis. Gentle
to moderate trades pulse to locally fresh speeds from 08N to 15N
near the ITCZ, supporting 8-9 ft seas in this area. Elsewhere,
seas are 5-7 ft in open waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Tammy is expected to
move eastward today then move E-SE tonight, while brushing the far
NE offshore waters, then turn SE and weaken through Tue. High
pressure across the middle Atlantic coastal states is combining
with a low level trough than extends from S of Tammy to 1008 mb
low pressure located just N of Puerto Rico to produce a large area
of fresh to strong winds, with very high seas between Tammy and
the Bahamas. These high seas will slowly subside through Sun
night. The low pressure is expected to move W-NW cross the SE
Bahamas Sun and gradually drift NW through Tue, accompanied by
very active weather. A strong cold front will enter the NW waters
Wed.

$$
Mahoney
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